Who will the US face in the World Cup knockout stage?

With their success in Group D, the U.S. has officially secured a spot in the Round of 32 for the 2026 World Cup.

But, you might wonder, who will they face in the upcoming tournament?

That question is, well, a bit tricky. It involves various factors like brackets, the FIFA Rules and Regulations, complex matrices, and a staggering 495 combinations of potential third-place teams that could advance from group play.

Let’s see if we can tackle that question, starting with the framework of the World Cup.

2026 World Cup Qualification

To begin with, we can refer to the World Cup Bracket.

In the lower left section of this bracket, you can spot where the U.S. will be placed once the Round of 32 is determined. As Group D winners, they’ll occupy the “1D” position and will compete against the third-place team from Groups B, E, F, I, or J.

With the tournament expanding to 48 teams, both the top two teams from each group and the eight best third-place teams will progress to the Round of 32. More specifics to follow.

Who are the possible opponents for the U.S.?

So, who could the U.S. run into during the Round of 32?

The potential teams from each group are as follows: if you want to dig deeper into each group’s standings, follow the links provided to see the complete standings and tournament scenarios.

Currently, the third-place teams are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden, Senegal, and Jordan. However, only Ecuador and Sweden have a shot at being among the top eight third-place teams. Thus, if the Round of 32 started right now, the U.S. could only face Ecuador or Sweden. More updates to come.

For ongoing updates on the ranking of third-place teams, you can find more information through the provided links. Rankings adjust after each match.

FIFA has previously indicated that the FIFA Rules and Regulations Appendix C describes 495 possible scenarios for third-place teams. This setup, along with the combination outcomes, will define the matches for the third-place teams.

At the moment, the third-place rankings for groups B, I, J, and L are low, with their combination categorized in Appendix C as combination 283. This means the U.S. would go up against the third-place team from Group E.

Currently, that team happens to be Ecuador.

Another way to visualize these scenarios is through Wikipedia.

For now, it looks like the U.S. will be playing against Ecuador. But, of course, if the third-place rankings shift, so will the potential matchups and matrix configurations.

Considering the 495 combinations, there’s a high likelihood—329 combinations suggest the U.S. faces a team from Group B, while 39 indicate a matchup with Group E. There are also 11 combinations for Group F, 52 for Group I, and 64 for Group J.

Not surprisingly, many believe the U.S. will likely battle the third-place team from Group B, the outcome of the match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar might determine that.

Is there another perspective to consider? Experts indicate that there’s a 60% chance for the U.S. to meet Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32, while Qatar has a 17% likelihood.

The remaining contenders are Senegal at 6% and Ecuador at 4%.

We’ll have clarity on this soon—within just a few days.