The phrase “draft surprise” often carries a negative vibe. It makes us think of leaked Wonderlic scores, off-field issues that come to light too late, or undiagnosed injuries revealed only on draft night. Yet, this year’s 2026 NFL Draft presented a noteworthy surprise drop that might alter our views on this class.
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, initially considered a mid-round selection following a lackluster senior year, might finally explain why he struggled so profoundly in 2025. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero highlighted that tests at the combine uncovered a cyst on Nussmeier’s spine. This cyst was pressing on a nerve, causing substantial pain in his oblique muscles. Throughout the season, reports suggested he had a “persistent abdominal injury,” but the exact cause remained largely unrecognized.
Playing quarterback with an oblique injury is a massive problem. The core plays a critical role in throwing mechanics, connecting the legs, core, and arms. When pain hampers muscle response, the whole pitching action can fall apart. Viewing Nussmeier’s performance with this context in mind gives us a new perspective.
His inconsistency was striking. One moment, he delivered a perfect spiral, and the next, he missed entirely. At times, he over-relied on his arms rather than using proper technique, especially when under pressure. These flaws can likely be traced back to his injury. Though he missed games and was tagged as an injury risk, the reality was that this ongoing issue drastically altered his gameplay.
As per Pelissero’s update, Nussmeier is set to have minimally invasive surgery to remove the cyst. This should allow him to resume training in two to three weeks once the discomfort at the incision site diminishes and the stitches are taken out. Given that this involves the nervous system, alleviating the pressure should theoretically resolve his issues.
Now, here’s where it gets intriguing.
This draft class has seen its fair share of underwhelming quarterback performances. Coming into the 2025 college football season, Fernando Mendoza was solidly positioned as QB4 and projected to land somewhere in the late first round, perhaps in the teens. The top three contenders were Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, and South Carolina’s Lanoris Sellers. It felt like it was just Mendoza going up against Drew Aller.
But here’s the kicker: Klubnik hasn’t been impressive and is looking undraftable at this point. Sellers decided to stay in school, hoping to boost his draft stock. Aller might be picked late. Mendoza arguably should be QB1, but if we’re considering who might be QB2, it’s going to require some serious discussions. Ty Simpson seems like the most likely candidate for QB2, but that’s assuming everything is equal. However, that’s not the case. Nussmeier’s injury forces us to reevaluate our scouting process. We may need to look back at his 2024 season rather than just analyzing his senior year as the definitive gauge.
Nussmeier drew significant first-round buzz after his junior year. Last April, he was ranked 16th on the big board. Although he needed to refine certain areas post-junior year, those adjustments never materialized. Nevertheless, in 2024, he completed 64.2% of his passes, accumulating over 4,000 yards, with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Early mock drafts even had him going as the second overall pick—indicating he could emerge as a starting quarterback early in the college season. Nussmeier possesses impressive arm talent and athleticism, offering much more potential than Simpson, who might peak at being a Mac Jones-level quarterback.
If you’re looking at a second-round pick and contemplating a quarterback, opting for Nussmeier as QB2 and trading down in the first round to secure that fifth-year option could be more advantageous. From my perspective, he’s still that promising player who was on an upward trajectory following the 2024 season at LSU. Sure, his size raises concerns, but there’s a tremendous earning potential for someone who, under different circumstances, might have been a no-brainer top-five selection—all because he developed a cyst last summer.
If Pelissero’s insights hold true, and if this cyst truly drove Nussmeier’s struggles, then keep an eye on him. He’s likely to make an NFL draft appearance.
