Hispanic Americans have long been the base of support for the Democratic Party. There are signs of change, and it could decide the election this November.
Democrats have won the Hispanic vote in every presidential election since 1972. With the exception of 2004, Democratic candidates since 1992 have always outperformed Republican candidates by 100 points. Minimum 35 points with Hispanic voters.
Surprisingly to some, that began to change with the Trump administration.
Hispanics are primarily working class, and by 2020 they had begun to favor Donald Trump and his party.
Joe Biden won over Hispanics by a 23-point margin, 60-37, according to data from Democratic firm Catalyst Program. This was enough to turn Florida from a swing state into a Republican-leaning state and give Trump a boost in both Nevada and Arizona.
Republicans maintained these victories despite a difficult domestic environment for the 2022 midterm elections. Equis Research, a Democratic-leaning firm, estimates Democrats won by about . Same percentage of Hispanic votes As Biden did in 2020, he will do the same in House races, key Senate races, and gubernatorial races.
Republicans were disappointed that despite extensive outreach to the Hispanic community, more was not achieved. But simply maintaining profits was important.
Polls show Trump has a better relationship with Hispanics now than he did in 2020. Kamala Harris leads Trump by about 12 points, according to Cook Political Report's Demographic Survey Average, and Biden's lead is down 11 points.
It is also telling that Trump's share of the Hispanic vote has not declined even after Harris entered the race. Harris' approval rating was about 5 points higher than Biden's at the time he resigned, but Trump's 41.9% approval rating among Latinos is statistically the same as Biden's 41.8% approval rating when he resigned. It was.
Even one of the more favorable polls for Harris shows her slipping in among Hispanics. a Recent Pew Research Polls Among Hispanics, Biden led 61-36, while among Hispanics he led Trump 57-39. That's a 7-point decrease in the Democratic lead, not much smaller than the 11-point decrease Cook Political showed.
It's not hard to see why Hispanics are increasingly frustrated with Harris and the Democratic Party.
Their communities have been particularly affected by the large influx of immigrants. Most of the communities that migrants pass through have large Hispanic populations, and many of those captured and released would have settled in Latino areas where the people and language are more familiar.
This means that Hispanics are more likely than any other ethnic group to bear the brunt of the disruption caused by immigration. Crime that happens on their streets. The jobs immigrants are trying to get are the same jobs that many Hispanics aspire to.
The unstable economy has affected Latinos more than the upper-class whites who have shaped the Biden administration's policies. Inflation always destroys the poor and working class first, and Hispanics tend to be poorer and less educated than white Americans.
Unemployment rates for Hispanics are also rising. 5.5% In the latest employment report. Stagnant or declining real wages and diminished job prospects always hurt incumbent parties.
This decline in Latinos could be fatal to Harris' hopes in Nevada and Arizona.
In 2020, Hispanic turnout in both states was just under 20%, but this year their share should be slightly higher.
If the Democratic lead with Latinos drops 10 points compared to 2020, all else being equal, Trump will easily win Arizona and nearly wipe out the deficit in Nevada. I'm going to do it.
Hispanic votes could also be decisive in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Latinos account for 5% to 7% of the vote in each state, and that number should rise slightly this year. A 10-point difference shift in Mr. Trump's direction could mean the difference in a race expected to be decided by a tenth of a point.
Harris is largely hampered by Hispanic voters' distaste for the Biden administration.
only 39% The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows approval of Biden's job performance. That number drops to 32% when asked about Biden's immigration history, and just 30% when asked about his record on fighting crime.
As a result, Harris has sought to distance herself from the administration's record on the border and fabricate her past as a prosecutor. Both positions are attempts to paint her in a different light that is acceptable to moderate Hispanics dissatisfied with Biden.
Polls show she has made little headway on this score, but there are about five weeks until Election Day. She still has time to redeem herself and bring Hispanics back to traditional Democratic traditions.
This effort will go a long way. So far, Harris has only shown notable polling gains among college-educated whites. If that remains the case by the end of October, she may find that her failure to bring the core Democratic constituency into alignment may be what brings Trump back to the Oval Office.
Political analyst and commentator Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Center for Ethics and Public Policy.
