Bangladesh’s Proposal for an Independent Rohingya Province
During a meeting in Dhaka with representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami Party brought up the idea of creating an independent province for Rohingya people in regions where they form a majority. The Chinese delegation, led by Pen Jiubin, who oversees Southeast and South Asian affairs, was present at this discussion. This meeting takes place as the number of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh continues to rise, largely due to the influence of ethnic militants, especially from the Arakan Army, a Rakhine Buddhist extremist group that has been expanding its control along Myanmar’s borders.
“China has a significant role to play here, especially given its strong ties with Myanmar,” commented Jamaat leader Said Abdullah Muhammad Tahar. He noted the considerable geopolitical implications for India, emphasizing the need for a safe and dignified return for the Rohingyas. “After my April 27 meeting with the Chinese CCP, I spoke to the press about how vital it is to create a safe zone for their return,” he added.
The foreign advisor to Bangladesh’s interim government, MD Touhid Hossain, highlighted during a seminar that the ongoing Rohingya crisis poses a long-term threat not just to Bangladesh but also to regional stability, calling for stronger international action to find sustainable solutions.
He pointed out that despite the ongoing burden this situation places on Bangladesh, viable solutions remain elusive, particularly given the instability in Myanmar.
Since 2017, over 700,000 Rohingya have arrived in Bangladesh from the violence in Rakhine State, leading to a total of more than 1.3 million Rohingyas now living in camps in Cox’s Bazar and Basan Char Island. Recently, many Rohingyas have sought evacuation as armed groups like the Arakan Army pursue greater autonomy for Rakhine, aiming ultimately for independence from the central government.
The Arakan Army, in alliance with groups like the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Forces and the Taan National Liberation Army, has gained control over significant areas since launching a military campaign late last year.
In recent months, the Arakan Army has claimed control of over 80% of Rakhine. Myanmar’s military has struggled to maintain authority, exacerbating the influx of Rohingya into Bangladesh. If China decides to support the Jamaat-e-Islami’s proposal, it could create substantial geopolitical challenges for India, though experts believe an independent Rohingya province is improbable.
According to analysts, the current geopolitical landscape does not favor the establishment of independent Rohingya states. While Myanmar’s military has lost ground to the Arakan Army, neither side has shown interest in supporting a separate Rohingya entity. The Arakan Army has historically been ambiguous about the political aspirations of the Rohingyas and is more focused on achieving autonomy for ethnic Rakhine.
Interestingly, while the Jamaat-e-Islami party has often opposed India, it seeks to engage China in these discussions. Bangladesh’s interim government has invited China to expand its influence in the region, while India remains focused on northern Bangladesh and the strategically significant Siliguri corridor. However, Myanmar, sharing a border with southern Bangladesh, could represent an alternative route for India, enhancing its security in the northeast.
Both India and China have established presences in Rakhine, and India is linked to Myanmar through infrastructure projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, which facilitates economic ties and alternative routes to its northeastern states.
The arrival of India’s first cargo ship at Sittwe Port on May 9, 2023, marks a significant step in enhancing maritime trade between Kolkata and Myanmar. This port connects via inland waterways, effectively bypassing Bangladesh.
“The investment in Sittwe and the Kaladan Project align with broader goals of securing connectivity in Northeast India. However, the ongoing instability in Rakhine complicates this further,” Banerjee noted.
India is closely monitoring developments along its border with Myanmar, considering these initiatives critical for regional security and economic prosperity. As Bangladesh seeks to strengthen ties with Pakistan and invites China’s involvement, the move towards establishing an independent Rohingya province may become a significant hurdle. Reports suggest that India might need to establish communication lines with those controlling Rakhine State to navigate these challenges effectively.
