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Why Mets now carry such low expectations

PORT STREET SEA — Steve Cohen first suggested when he bought the Mets that he saw the always-great Dodgers as the orange color and blueprint for his team. However, as things stand now, the 2024 Mets have about one thing in common with his LA team. Yes, that’s a huge salary.

The Mets and Dodgers rank first and second in player spending and are two of only three teams above the Tier 4 luxury tax threshold, along with intercity rival Yankees. . That rarefied atmosphere is commonly referred to as the realm of the “Steve Cohen tax.” It’s the very tariffs that his 29 rivals designed to keep Cohen’s spending reasonable (obviously, so far, the results have been mixed on that score).

The Dodgers’ new megastar roster, featuring Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Mookie Betts, has been compared to the Beatles in Arizona and will cost $321 million, according to Kotz Baseball’s contract. It is said that Even though expectations were much lower, the Mets paid him slightly more at $329 million.

Cohen is a very intelligent person. There’s no other way to honestly accumulate an estimated $20 billion fortune. — To his credit, he wants to win very badly. So it’s frankly shocking that his team is in the position it is in right now, even if it’s only for one year, which it probably will be. At least for 2024, they look like a very average team with a very inflated payroll, which would be a record were it not for the $350 million he spent last year.


Steve Cohen (left) and David Stearns attend the Mets’ induction press conference on October 2, 2024. Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

It’s a little strange, at least to me, that they are in such an unenviable position. (See below for details.)

But try to inject some positivity, at least on the first day.

There is no doubt that Cohen’s Mets have a very bright future ahead of them, thanks to the baseball spirit of new baseball president David Stearns and Cohen’s spirit and moolah, and things will inevitably get better going forward. . However, today’s challenge is how to survive 2024.

Stearns rightly said in Monday’s camp-opening press conference that it’s “understandable” that people don’t put the Mets in line with the Braves and Phillies. (And let’s not forget that they ended up losing big to the Marlins in 2023). Stearns wasn’t able to go there, but he said something very interesting: We look forward to some exciting baseball at Citi Field in September and October as we compete for a playoff spot. ”

Stearns is a man who chooses his wording precisely, and he certainly said “October.” The home portion of the regular season ends on September 22, so even if he wasn’t specifically predicting the playoffs, his comments seemed to hint at it. Certainly, it was a nice step up from Fred Wilpon’s earlier comments about playing meaningful games in September.

I liked listening.

I don’t know if I share that optimism.

Stearns improved his defense and added enough depth to emerge in the middle of the pack. Considering the expanded playoff performance, the possibility of October baseball cannot be ruled out. But maybe only a few people around him actually expect that.

If the goal is to increase competitiveness and maintain flexibility in ultra-short-term trading, they made a worthwhile move. Their defense and depth looks much improved. Overall, they look solid, maybe even solid plus.

Luis Severino could be a great player for $13 million if he can stay healthy and stop throwing money away (which should have been a problem considering the player he is).


Luis Severino
Luis Severino signed a one-year contract with the Mets this season. AP

Sean Manaea is a good buy at two years and $28 million — if he can repeat last year’s performance with the Giants.

Harrison Bader improves defense.

Jake Diekman is the second veteran left-hander they needed.

The Adrian Houser trade was so one-sided that it seemed like a parting gift from Sterns’ old Brewers team.

This is not at all what Mets fans expected when they acquired MLB’s richest owner. Of course, that wasn’t the case in Year 4, the penultimate year of Coach Cohen’s five-year quest to win the World Series. There’s going to be a lot of pressure going into 2025.

But questions must be asked. How did they arrive at the so-called transition period of 2024?

In particular, the contracts of Max Scherzer ($130 million, 3 years), Justin Verlander ($86.7 million, 2 years, with vested options), and James McCann ($42 million, 4 years) are likely to increase in the future. Two Hall of Fame players and a lifelong backup catcher. Who has to be a better negotiator than the players? That would put the Mets in a big predicament. Mr. Cohen ended up paying for most of those deals when he traded all three. The best way to decipher exactly where things went wrong is to track the money, or dead money in their case.

During Coach Cohen’s first three years, the Mets made a number of well-intentioned decisions that seemed wise (at least they were at the time). But the greatest financial guru of all time wanted to win so much that he dug himself an unprecedented financial hole, with losses reaching $200 million in 2023, by some estimates. (Mr. Cohen has only acknowledged in past interviews that the losses were “bigger than bread.”) Box. ) No one, no matter how rich, can accept losing that much money. I can’t blame him one bit for his withdrawal this past year.

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