James Carville, former President Clinton's legendary strategist, summed up his electoral and governing success with the following slogan and observation: “It's the economy, idiot.”
like him these days I wrote“Many Americans don't give a rat's tail about this.” [President-elect Donald] Trump's indictment, even if justified, is about his anti-democratic impulses and social problems when he is unable to support himself and his family. ”
As we move into the second Trump administration and recognize the political headwinds that threaten progress on climate change, it is important to pay attention to Carville's irony and its relevance to the future of climate and sustainability. .
As someone who has been advising global companies on sustainability for 20 years, I see compelling evidence that economic forces will continue to drive climate action. By a large margin, The issues that matter most to voters in the 2024 election It was the economy and employment. Immigration and social issues were also relevant, but inflation and the perceived lack of good jobs gave Trump the popular vote.
To maintain his electoral mandate, President-elect Trump will need to deliver economic goods. He needs to create jobs, rebuild manufacturing and support the growth of technology, especially artificial intelligence. Massive influx of additional energy generation. The Trump administration will not be able to achieve these political goals without continued investment in industries that have a positive climate impact.
First, investments in climate change industries during the previous Trump administration and Biden era 2.7 million jobsapproximately 40% of which is manufacturing. In 2023 aloneDomestically, clean energy-related employment growth exceeded national employment growth by an average of 4.2% to 2%. The manufacturing industry's focus on creating clean energy jobs is particularly noteworthy because these jobs are lucrative and do not require advanced degrees. By industry analysisthe average wage for clean energy manufacturing jobs is about 25% higher than the national manufacturing average.
There are also a disproportionate number of green jobs. Located in the state that promoted Trump as president. For example, electric vehicle and battery production facilities job creation In states like Georgia, Tennessee, and Michigan. Manufactures solar panels in Ohio, South Carolina, and Arizona. The company also produces wind turbine components in Texas, Iowa and Colorado.
The economic benefits of these states extend beyond jobs. Wind energy royalties and solar land rents are fueling rural economic recovery, while rural areas benefit from carbon capture and energy storage projects. Not surprisingly, climate action in these states has broad support at the state level and among Republicans in Congress. To be honest, my only concern is Politicians from all walks of life can agree The other is that AI is transformative and will power future economic growth.
The friction with AI is the unprecedented energy required to drive the system. Microsoft estimates that data centers currently consume approximately 2% of the world's electricity. However, with the rise of AI, energy consumption will increase dramatically.
ChatGPT-3 alone training estimates 1,287MWhThis is enough to power a large city of about 1 million people, including homes, businesses, street lighting, and public transportation needs. By 2027, data centers are expected to consume 3.7 percent and 7.5 percent of the world's electricity. US power grid will be needed To support this growth, approximately 250-300 TWh of additional annual generation capacity will be required by 2030. This represents a 17% increase in current U.S. electricity production.
Where does this power generation capacity come from?
Initial estimate This means the national electricity grid will need to add enough capacity to meet peak demand of more than 200 GW by 2030. Leading technology companies are already responding to these challenges. microsoft Pledging $1 billion to buy clean energy; google is developing an AI system that optimizes data center energy usage. Amazon Web Services has invested in 10 GW of renewable energy projects around the world.
In other words, the Trump administration's hands are tied, even if it wanted to completely divest from clean energy investments, and I'm not convinced that it does. If we don't continue to invest in renewable energy and energy storage, we risk shorting out the AI economy. The same applies to the corporate business community.
Businesses need to appeal to multiple stakeholders, and while governments are important, customers, employees, and investors are just as important, if not more so. Fortune 500 companies that have made good on their promises to customers, not to mention the existential threat that climate change poses to their supply chains and core businesses, cannot walk away from them without alienating their core constituencies. and More Big Tech companies are showing favor In the incoming Trump administration, the president and his team will not be negligent in not listening to the broader business community on tackling climate change.
Major institutional investors are stepping up this effort. Jointly managed by BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street 22 trillion dollars Assets that require climate risk disclosure and mitigation strategies. The insurance industry has emerged as a powerful driver of climate change adaptation, with major insurers excluding high-emissions projects and increasing premiums in regions vulnerable to climate change. average 27% From 2020.
Supply chain considerations have also become particularly important. walmart apple and microsoft Requiring suppliers to meet specific emissions targets. Additional green jobs will be created as a result of the significant financial investments these companies will make to comply. It's truly a virtuous cycle.
Beyond regulatory compliance, green investing contributes to your bottom line. the study Companies with superior environmental performance have been shown to have 4.7% higher profit margins and 23% fewer supply chain disruptions during extreme weather events than their peers. It goes without saying that these actions create goodwill with customers, employees, and investors.
Climate change will continue to advance even under the Trump administration. Because climate change has been and will continue to unleash powerful economic forces. Manufacturing job creation in politically sensitive states, energy demands driven by AI and other innovative technologies, and corporate commitments are making investing in climate change an economic imperative rather than an ideological choice. Masu. “It’s still the economy, idiot.” And for the incoming Trump administration, supporting climate change is not just good environmental policy, it’s an essential economic and political strategy.
Keith Zakheim is CEO of Antenna Group, the world's largest public relations firm focused on the clean energy transition, and host of the Age of Adoption podcast.
