Why the war in Gaza won’t thwart Biden’s reelection

A theory is emerging that President Joe Biden’s support for Israel could be the death knell for his re-election bid.

For example, Sen. Bernie Sanders Said The issue could become “decisive” in November. Headings like “”Israel could cost Joe Biden re-election” (Newsweek) and “Biden’s stance on Israel-Hamas war creates re-election risk”” (Bloomberg) gives the impression that the White House’s full-throated support for Israel may ruin the president’s chances.

As evidenced by the Michigan primary, Over 100,000 voters In a state that Biden won by a 154,000-vote margin in 2020, he vowed to “resolutely protest” Biden’s policies toward Israel — Democrats are understandably concerned about the politics of the issue. Still, the idea that Biden’s electoral fortunes are ruined by the war in Gaza is exaggerated.

First, Biden’s approval rating has barely changed since October 7th. underwater voting This is a further source of anxiety for the Democratic Party.Data is Donald Trump nationally significant leadas well as the key swing state such as Michigan.

But this is hardly due to Biden’s position on Israel. In fact, his favorability ratings have remained more or less constant since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict broke out. Biden was confirmed on October 8, the day after a brutal attack by Hamas. evaluation The figure was a dismal 39.6%. Now he’s at 38.5 percent.

Second, even though the American public is increasingly divided over Israel and Palestine, few people rank the Gaza war as a very salient issue.According to Gallup voteFor example, fewer than 1 percent of voters list it as the country’s most important issue.

Domestic challenges continue to be a major concern for most Americans. Immigration (28%), inflation/economy (23%), and leadership in general (20%). With the Gaza war still competing for headlines with Russia’s war in Ukraine, the issue remains a second priority for most voters, including those interested in foreign policy.

Third, other politicians who have explicitly supported Israel have fared well. Case in point: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania), who is frequently seen waving an Israeli flag at the Capitol. ridiculed Palestinian protesters and declared He said he would be “the last man who can absolutely join the Israeli side in this matter without conditions.”

His numbers have never been better.according to Recent Quinnipiac Poll, In Pennsylvania, Mr. Fetterman’s approval/disapproval rating is +3, while Mr. Biden’s approval rating is -18. Almost twice as many Pennsylvanians say they have a favorable opinion of him for his stance on Israel.

Fourth, if Biden does not strongly defend Israel after the Hamas attack, he will lose some pro-Israel voters. The Democratic Party is, in fact, Divided Among those sympathetic to Israelis and Palestinians, Biden is bound to alienate some supporters no matter which “side” he takes in the conflict.

All of this doesn’t mean the war in Gaza isn’t hurting Biden. It’s just that the effects of the war are likely to have broader political implications, rather than strictly electoral consequences.acquisition of adjectives “Genocide Joe” It’s not without cost.

On Capitol Hill, Biden’s ability to pass legislation in his second term will be severely hampered by progressives who already see him as a pariah. Biden had problems with his left flank before the war. That task will become even more difficult now that Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has accused Biden of “green-lighting the genocide of the Palestinian people.”

The White House also risks appearing powerless to domestic and international audiences. Mr. Biden was quick to express unwavering support for Israel’s right to defend itself after October 7, betting on the public’s support. hug It will give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a private space to urge restraint.But that leverage Not realized.

In the early months of the war, Israel avoided the government’s “closed door” recommendations to carry out more military operations. surgery campaign In Gaza. In the weeks that followed, Prime Minister Netanyahu blocked any viable discussions, despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s tireless diplomatic efforts. “Endgame” scenariorejecting the premise of Biden’s aspirations 2-state solution.

it left biden I complain “I’m giving him hell,” he said, lamenting Netanyahu’s inability to force Israel to reverse its so-called policies.indiscriminate” and “look up” bombing campaign. This war thus shows the limits of American and Biden influence, but Biden also refuses to condition American military aid to Israel.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is politically sensitive, and the White House continues to navigate the maze of on-the-ground policy issues in Gaza. Even if the election is close, the war is unlikely to be a decisive difference for Biden at the polls. Still, the trajectory of the conflict and the United States’ role in it remain a political flashpoint.

Thomas Gift is Associate Professor of Political Science and Founding Director of the Center for American Politics at University College London.follow him @tgiftiv. Julie Norman is Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations, Deputy Director of the Center for American Politics at University College London, and Senior Associate Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.follow her @DrJulieNorman2.