Over the past two years, I have written several articles stating that President Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in November. For practical, common-sense “campaign fundamentals” reasons, it just doesn’t make sense.
On that very point, Joe Scarborough, co-host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” spoke of his “love” for Biden. A very logical question was asked. Yesterday, after Biden’s apparent debate gaffe, he said: “If he was a CEO and he performed like that, would any company in America, any Fortune 500 company in America, keep him as a CEO?”
I think the answer for everyone except Biden’s most ardent supporters and those who stand to benefit from his presidency is a resounding “no.”
But just as Biden’s lackluster performance in Thursday night’s debate understandably caused panic among Clinton, Obama and even some of Biden’s former colleagues, I would argue that a “replace Biden” scenario creates a potential political minefield for the Trump campaign.
Most rational Americans might now agree that, given Thursday night’s debate debacle and a host of policy missteps, it would make sense for Democrats to replace Biden with another candidate at their August convention, but would that actually benefit former President Donald Trump campaigning-wise? I don’t think so.
In an interview with Fox News Digital after the debate, Trump was asked whether he thought Biden would be the Democratic nominee.
“Yes, I think he’ll be the nominee,” the former president responded. Asked about growing calls to replace Biden, Trump said, “No, I don’t think so. He couldn’t have done better than Biden. There couldn’t have been anybody better than Biden.”
Trump declared he “beat” Biden and said anyone on stage with him would have won. This is probably true, and if you’re in “campaign,” you should feel good about that confidence.
A CNN poll conducted after Thursday night’s presidential debate reported that Trump had indeed defeated Biden in the debate, with 67% of debate viewers believing Trump had won and 33% believing Biden had won.
Would Trump have received similar or even higher approval ratings if he had debated another Democrat? Probably. But that’s not the big question or concern for those who expect him to win in November. The bigger question for the Trump campaign now is whether fighting devils it knows is better than devils it doesn’t know.
To me, and to many people I speak to, the obvious answer is that it would be much better for Trump if Biden remained the Democratic nominee. The first reason, of course, is Biden’s disastrous debate performance. CNN reported that 48 million Americans tuned in to watch Thursday night’s debate. It’s very logical to assume that millions of viewers hadn’t paid much attention to the campaign up until that point, as they were going about their daily lives. For those millions, Biden’s performance will have dumped “cold water” in many of their faces. That’s a big plus for Trump.
As former President Trump knows, success or failure in politics is often determined more by perception than reality. One of the many reasons Trump won the 2016 election is that he had (and still has) that elusive “it factor” — an X-factor that can’t be manufactured. You either have it or you don’t.
No one in the Trump campaign wants to see a “knight in shining armor” riding into the Chicago convention to “save” the Democratic Party, especially if that “knight” has his own “it factor.” At that point, it doesn’t matter if Trump could beat that person in a debate. It all depends on the perception and momentum in the final three months of the campaign.
After Thursday’s debate, the Biden campaign insisted that Biden is not dropping out of the race, which in my opinion is a very welcome statement for the Trump campaign, who should be happy to face off against the Biden-Harris candidate.
The last thing they need is a new horseman — be it California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or someone else — emerging from the horizon to generate positive buzz and new hope as Biden self-destructs.
Can Trump defeat his new “knight” on the political battlefield? The odds and recent history suggest he can. But Trump would be much better off charging at a knight who is already slipping off his horse.
Political and communications consultant Douglas McKinnon served as a White House writer under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush and served as special assistant for policy and communications at the Department of Defense during the final three years of the Bush administration.
