Bitcoin’s Trading Moves Towards New Heights
Currently, all trading ranges for Bitcoin seem to be part of a consolidated movement leading up to potential returns exceeding $110,000. Recently, major cryptocurrencies have moved past their $105,000 support level, yet the rally has faced some challenges over the last couple of weeks.
A technical analysis of Bitcoin’s activity highlights that there’s a likely connection with global M2 money supply. If this connection holds, we could soon see Bitcoin reaching new historical highs.
The Global M2 Offset Model Presents Interesting Insights
An interesting perspective comes from Colin, a crypto analyst known as “The M2 Guy” on social media. He observes that Bitcoin’s price trend seems to follow the global M2 money supply significantly, especially when the data is offset by 68 to 76 days.
Colin has shared two charts illustrating this correlation. One chart, using a 68-day offset, closely mirrors Bitcoin’s behavior since April 2025. The other, with a 76-day offset, offers a longer-term view. In both instances, the M2 curve is on an upward trajectory, suggesting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, as it seems to be yet to truly engage with this upward movement. He refers to this alignment as a “confluence,” arguing that when two indicators point in the same direction, the likelihood of that outcome grows stronger. Notably, the average correlation across both charts is around 76.6-76.9%, indicating a solid statistical basis for the prediction.
What This Could Mean for Bitcoin Prices
In terms of the 68-day offset chart, the M2 curve has accurately mapped Bitcoin’s price movements since April, boasting an impressive accuracy of 89.9% over a 90-day period. The 76-day offset, while not as precise in the short run, shows a robust correlation over longer intervals—92.2% across a year and a half, and 86.2% over two years. These figures suggest that Bitcoin’s price is increasingly influenced by global liquidity trends, particularly regarding the inflows and outflows linked to spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This relationship becomes even more apparent with the rising M2 money supply. As this trend continues, Bitcoin is expected to follow suit, potentially driving its value above the $110,000 mark and surpassing previous records. It’s certainly going to be intriguing to see how Bitcoin’s price action unfolds in the upcoming days. Colin believes this move is not just possible but might occur quite soon.
If Bitcoin aligns with this trend, projections indicate it could continue moving within higher ranges throughout August. As of now, Bitcoin has been trading at $106,549, reflecting a 1% increase in the past 24 hours.
