Winners and losers from Super Tuesday

Tuesday was the biggest day yet for each major party’s presidential nomination race, at least in terms of total votes cast.

Fifteen states held Republican or Democratic races on Tuesday, with Democratic caucuses also held in American Samoa.

Excitement over the overall outcome comes as President Biden faced only superficial opposition and former President Trump was in no danger from his only remaining rival, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley. There was a shortage.

Biden and Trump officially won by a landslide.

The more interesting elements of Super Tuesday lie beneath the surface of the presidential race and several other primaries for the Senate and House races.

There are winners and losers here.

winner

former president trump

The Republican race is over, even if Trump has not yet officially clinched the nomination.

Trump won big in every region, with one exception: Vermont.

In Virginia, where Haley’s campaign had held out slight hopes of an upset, Trump won by about 30 points.

He is poised for even bigger wins in California and Texas, the two most populous states at the time.

Trump’s clear victory in this year’s primary was a remarkable comeback for a candidate whose political career seemed to be over in the wake of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

But its shadow still looms over Trump, particularly in the form of some of the 91 criminal charges he faces.

There were also some red flags about Trump’s weakening in more moderate and wealthy areas, such as the northern suburbs of Virginia.

With all that said, the bottom line is that the Republican Party is now Trump’s party.

president biden

Yes, Biden is a sitting president with only a nominal opposition.

But there’s nothing he can do in that scenario other than win by a wide margin, which he has done everywhere except for the small nation of American Samoa. Jason Palmer, a near unknown, won in the territorial caucuses with a total of 51 votes.

In actual states, it seems unlikely that any nominee other than Biden would reach double digits.

The president, who believes he is often underestimated, is well on his way to winning the nomination.

But like Trump, there are warning signs for Biden as well. Specifically, there is continued opposition to support for Israel in its attack on Gaza.

pro-Palestinian Democratic Party

The most significant results for Democrats outside of American Samoa came in Minnesota. And that was bad news for Biden.

The “Irresponsible” Vote campaign, promoted by pro-Palestinian opponents dissatisfied with Biden’s policies on Israel and Gaza, received about 20% of the vote.

Organizers of the effort noted that they spent just $20,000 in just one week of campaigning.

This result surpassed last week’s result in Michigan, where 13 percent of Democratic primary voters chose “irresponsible.”

Biden’s defenders will argue that he is trying to thread a difficult needle, given how deeply divided the party is by the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

They will also be hoping for a ceasefire soon, perhaps to heal political wounds.

But the real danger for Biden is now clearly visible.

Congressman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)

Mr. Schiff emerged on Super Tuesday as the leading candidate to win the Senate seat in November.

The congressman easily won California’s all-party “jungle primary.”

What is important for Mr. Schiff is that his opponent in the general election will be former baseball star Steve Garvey (Republican).

Mr. Schiff, who was in a better position to raise money, is estimated to have spent about $10 million on advertising to raise Mr. Garvey’s profile.

As a result, other Democratic candidates, most prominently, appear to have posed obstacles to the ambitions of Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.).

Under the Golden State’s primary system, the top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party. Schiff will likely have a better chance against Garvey than Porter in the Deep Blue State.

There’s always a chance that Garvey, best known for his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers, could be a big surprise come November.

However, Republicans have not won a statewide victory in California since 2006.

american samoa

This small territory has had an outsized voice in two consecutive election cycles.

Palmer’s victory was a big shock, but it’s worth emphasizing how small the electorate is.

Mr. Palmer’s 51 voters fell short of his result four years ago, when former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg won a similarly surprising victory with 175 votes in the Democratic caucus.

loser

nikki haley

Haley has won at least one of 15 Republican races, including the Vermont primary.

But a victory in one of the nation’s most liberal states will in no way change the course of the Republican primary. By 1 a.m. ET, Haley had won just 19 delegates, while Trump had nearly 500.

For Haley, this was the night that any remaining spark of hope went out.

The former UN ambassador was notable for not making any public statements. Her campaign aides said she was in her home state of South Carolina. Her campaign will probably be suspended soon.

Despite her loss in the primary, Haley rose within the party and easily replaced Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as Trump’s main rival.

She is promoting a vision of the Republican Party that is very different from Trump’s, and if Trump loses in November, she will definitely be able to say “I told you so.”

Haley is only 52 years old, so there is a good chance she will run again in 2028 or later.

But in 2024, this will definitely come to an end.

iowa democratic party

The Iowa Democratic Caucus has a long history, but now it’s all but over.

The era when Iowa State was the nation’s first contest produced some very dramatic moments, perhaps the most notable being then-Sen. Victory of Barack Obama (D-Illinois) in 2008.

But the Democratic caucus four years ago was a fiasco, with no results that night due to organizational chaos.

This embarrassment, and the more important imperative for Democrats, is to make the first state more representative of the nation as a whole, which means Iowa’s results are now part of Super Tuesday.

Biden won with about 91% of the vote.

It didn’t create any ripples at all.

American excitement

As a contest, this year’s Super Tuesday was a sleeper.

There was never any doubt about the overall outcome, and victories for Haley in Vermont and the previously unknown Palmer in American Samoa did nothing to change the larger contours.

This, in turn, would highlight the main contradiction of this year’s race.

Biden and Trump will easily win their party’s nomination, but polls show millions of Americans expect a tough resignation over the prospect of a rematch in 2020.

Back in January, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 67 percent of Americans were “tired of seeing the same candidate in the presidential election and want a new candidate.” .

In theory, this should open the door for third-party candidates.

Whether anyone can really benefit is another question.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on Super Tuesday that he had secured enough signatures to get on the ballot in Nevada.

According to averages maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ), Mr. Kennedy would receive 11% support in a hypothetical showdown between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.