Winners and losers of the Iowa caucuses

DES MOINES, Iowa — On Monday, voters had their say for the first time in the 2024 presidential campaign, with the results giving former President Trump a landslide victory in the Republican Iowa caucuses.

Trump won by about 30 points.

Much of the tension leading up to the caucuses revolved around the race for second place. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (Republican) won the consolation award over former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.

As usual at the party caucus, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy emerged victorious, finishing in fourth place and suspending campaigning. Mr. Ramaswamy, as expected, supported Mr. Trump.

Weather was a major factor in this year's caucuses, as the polar vortex plunged Iowa into temperatures well below freezing. Monday appeared to be the coldest day in caucus history.

About 112,000 Iowans are members of the party, far short of the 2016 record of about 186,000.

Here are the winners and losers from Monday night.

winner

former president trump

It was a perfect night for Trump.

He won by the widest margin that opinion polls had predicted, but there were no signs of softening or complacency among his supporters.

His vote share appears to have cleared the 50% mark, which eliminates his rival's claim that a majority of caucus attendees oppose him.

Just as importantly, the close results between DeSantis and Haley will likely keep them both in the race for some time to come, ensuring that the non-Trump vote remains evenly divided.

President Trump was unusually conciliatory by his standards in his roughly 20-minute victory speech to supporters there. He gave some credit to his competitors, saying they “were all having a good time together” and that Haley and DeSantis “both did a very good job.”

He also insisted that “now is the time for us all to come together,” a statement that may seem strange to critics of the most polarizing president in modern times.

But this softer tone was part of Team Trump's overall push to urge rivals to retreat.

Kari Lake, a Trump supporter who lost her 2022 bid for Arizona governor and is now a candidate for the state Senate, told The Hill that other candidates' candidacies are now “vain.” project,” he said.

“They have no chance of winning,” Lake said. “I think it would be a shame for them to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in Iowa and New Hampshire and try to bring down a great candidate. I want them to realize that they are someone who can help save them.”

pollster

Pollsters get a lot of flak for getting things wrong, but they did solidly in the Hawkeye State.

This is no mean feat in caucuses, which are inherently difficult to poll, and in this case, the inclement weather introduced a new element of uncertainty.

Trump's 30-point lead, with 98% of votes counted, was within the range most pollsters expected.

Critics will note that Haley overtook DeSantis for second place in some final polls before the caucuses.

But to be fair, some prominent pollsters were warning about these results because of the apparent lack of passion on the part of Haley's supporters.

J. Ann Selzer, the architect behind the highly regarded Des Moines Register poll, said two days before the caucus that there was a “fundamental weakness” in Haley's support level and that “her support “A disproportionate share of people may remain at home.”

Looks like that's exactly what happened.

iowa caucus

The Iowa Republican Party breathed a sigh of relief as the caucus itself went smoothly despite the difficult circumstances.

Voter turnout was indeed quite low, but still at a credible level considering the weather conditions.

There were no reports of serious misconduct and no candidates questioned the results.

This became even more important after the debacle in the Democratic Iowa caucuses four years ago.

At that time, a catastrophic failure occurred in the results reporting system. Democrats ultimately stripped Iowa of its first-in-the-nation status in the primary process.

mixture

Ron DeSantis

Bottom line: DeSantis survived.

Had he fallen to third place, there would have been a chorus of voices calling for the governor of Florida to drop out of the race — as well as New Hampshire, where he is third in polls, and Haley's home state. This is especially true when heading to less-populated areas, such as states. South Carolina.

By coming in second, DeSantis could argue that he exceeded expectations. “Despite everything they threw at us, everyone against us, we still won the Iowa “I got a ticket,” he said.

The DeSantis campaign was also furious with media organizations' early campaign calls. Supporters of the Florida governor have good reason to argue that this may have suppressed his vote.

Still, for a candidate who at one time believed Iowa was ideal terrain to upset Trump, finishing a distant second in the state is not much to brag about.

The road ahead is very difficult, but the governor of Florida will live to fight again.

loser

nikki haley

Haley's campaign has passionately argued that the Iowa result was a spiritual victory for her.

It really wasn't.

The candidate himself claimed in his post-caucus speech, “Tonight, Iowa has made this Republican primary a two-person race.”

That's a good spin. But this is not a very convincing argument when the candidate just came in third place, about 32 points behind the winner.

A deeper analysis of the results also seems to point to persistent problems. Ms. Haley's supporters are overwhelmingly college-educated voters, who outnumber voters without college degrees in her party.

Haley is by no means out of the race.

She might come back stronger in New Hampshire. It is easier to hypothesize about her winning the nomination than it is about DeSantis.

But she was a loser in Iowa simply because she desperately wanted a second-place finish and didn't get it.

media projection

The media is in another uproar of its own after predicting Trump the winner about 30 minutes after the caucuses began.

The call came before many Iowans had cast their votes.

The Associated Press and several television networks based their calls on a combination of voter surveys and very early voting results.

But until now, the generally accepted guideline was not to make predictions about the outcome during the voting period. That rule of thumb was broken on Monday.

Ken Cuccinelli, founder of a major super PAC supporting DeSantis, told The Hill in a text message that the initial calls were “absolutely outrageous.”

“The networks were calling the race when voting started,” he protested.

Of course, the DeSantis campaign has a vested interest in making the argument that his vote could have been higher.

But by any reasonable standard, this super-early prediction amounted to another questionable moment for the media.

Vivek Ramaswamy

he is out.

Ramaswamy was lagging behind in fourth place with about 8% of the votes, so there was no way forward.

The results showed what opinion polls have long pointed out. Despite the enthusiasm of his online fan base, Ramaswamy's appeal was extremely limited. In fact, the percentage of voters who view him negatively actually rose during his campaign.

Ramaswamy offered Trump's “full support” as he withdrew from the race.