A recent statewide poll indicates that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra’s lead over Republican opponent Steve Hilton has significantly narrowed, now standing at just eight points.
Becerra is polling at 49.2% compared to Hilton’s 41%, with around 9.8% of voters still undecided, as revealed in a poll shared exclusively with the California Post.
This latest result is a stark contrast to a Berkeley poll from just days ago, which showed Becerra enjoying an 18-point lead.
Notably, Becerra has fallen below the crucial 50% threshold for the first time in this general election polling, which means he lacks majority support as Election Day approaches in a little over two months.
Hilton has been vocal about Becerra’s record as Secretary of Health and Human Services, claiming that as more Californians become aware of it, his support is deteriorating. “He thinks he can smoothly reach victory as part of the corrupt Sacramento establishment, but this poll shows the people are ready to make a change,” Hilton asserted.
Hilton criticized Becerra for avoiding media engagements and debates, emphasizing that the Democratic candidate cannot hide from his long career in politics, which he describes as characterized by arrogance and continued costs and corruption under a single-party rule.
The Becerra campaign has not responded to the poll’s findings.
This poll, which surveyed 912 registered voters in California, was conducted by David Wolfson, who is affiliated with Columbia University’s Political Analytics program, from August 14 to 16.
Wolfson’s poll carries a margin of error of 3.3 points at a 95% confidence level and utilized text-to-web methodology.
The current findings indicate a tighter race compared to an earlier poll from August 3-9 by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times, which had shown Becerra leading Hilton 55% to 37% among a larger pool of 2,310 likely voters.
Becerra’s lead has decreased from a 21-point advantage recorded in a previous Berkeley poll in May. However, despite this decline, he still had a noticeable lead then.
This recent poll implies that the gubernatorial race could be much more competitive, although differences in sample sizes and polling methods make direct comparisons somewhat tricky.
Hilton’s performance stands out as significant — with Republicans comprising about 31.6% of the surveyed electorate, his 41% support is noteworthy.
The survey also reflected public sentiment towards Hilton, revealing that 25.2% of respondents view him “very favorably,” which is more than double Becerra’s 11.5% rating.
Becerra’s 49.2% support closely aligns with the 46.9% of voters identifying as Democrats. When undecided voters express their preferences, Becerra’s lead appears to widen to 54.5% against Hilton’s 45.5%.
A significant portion of likely voters, about 55.9%, believe California is headed in the wrong direction, which contrasts with only 24.6% who think the state is doing well.
Becerra also has lower personal approval ratings compared to Hilton; only 37.2% view him favorably while 49.8% rate him unfavorably, resulting in a negative rating of 12.6 points, despite his recognition among the electorate.
In contrast, Hilton has nearly balanced numbers, with 41.5% favorable against 44.6% unfavorable. There’s a notable segment of the electorate — about 32.9% — who are either undecided or not firmly committed to their chosen candidate, indicating a potentially rich pool of voters still in play.
Among voters who have selected a candidate, only 74.5% are definitively committed to voting for that person.
The dynamics of the race show signs of strength for Hilton in crucial areas, such as a June poll that suggested he was slightly leading Becerra in Orange County, an important battleground in Southern California.
Prior polling had offered a very different perspective, with a May survey indicating Becerra ahead of Hilton 52% to 31% among registered voters.
The general election for California is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with mail-in ballots set to be dispatched in October.
