California Election: Becerra vs. Hilton

The general election is set: Xavier Becerra will face Steve Hilton.

Becerra, the former California attorney general and currently serving as Biden’s Health and Human Services secretary, is a Democrat. Hilton, on the other hand, is a British-born commentator and entrepreneur, previously associated with Fox News, and is a Republican endorsed by former President Trump.

In the latest Berkeley IGS poll, Becerra leads with 52% compared to Hilton’s 31%, leaving 17% of voters undecided. This survey, managed by seasoned pollster Mark DiCamillo and partially funded by the Los Angeles Times, was conducted online from May 19 to May 24 with responses from over 8,500 registered voters. It’s worth noting that California polls have proved to be increasingly trustworthy.

A 21-point lead—on the surface, it seems like a comfortable margin.

But when you delve into the numbers, it’s not just about Becerra’s lead. This data reflects the ongoing dominance of Democrats in California, highlighting that Mr. Becerra, personally, isn’t commanding substantial power on his own.

To break it down, in California, the typical Democrat has a significant head start. Republicans trail by about 20 points, which DiCamillo describes as a “huge advantage in the general election.”

This prompts an important, albeit unspoken, question. If Democrats have such a commanding edge, why is Becerra sitting at just 52% with so many voters still on the fence?

The truth is, the focal point here isn’t Becerra himself, but rather the party registration. He mirrors the party’s strength, rather than leading it.

As for Hilton, he carries a notable challenge. Trump’s approval ratings in California remain low—around 29%, with 69% opposing him and 62% expressing strong disapproval.

This week hasn’t been particularly kind to Trump, with the Berkeley study indicating these figures have stayed largely unchanged over time. Once established, these ratings can be hard to shake off.

Hilton’s initial support in the primaries—37% of likely Republican voters indicating a shift towards him—is now ironically becoming a liability as the general election approaches.

Voter Dynamics in California

Moving forward, let’s analyze the voters that will make a difference.

Republicans need independent voters to be competitive in California, who currently make up about 30% of the electorate. Becerra holds an advantage with 43% support from these voters compared to Hilton’s 28%, leaving 29% undecided.

This group of undecided voters could be a glimmer of hope for Hilton’s campaign, but the overall outlook is bleak. Nonpartisan voters are expressing discontent with Trump in overwhelming numbers—68% disapproval versus only 22% in favor.

Interestingly, the very supporters Hilton needs to attract are often the ones most put off by Trump’s brand.

The upcoming months will likely revolve around Hilton attempting to separate himself from Trump while still maintaining his base. Unfortunately, there isn’t much in this poll suggesting he’s found a way to do that.

Also, something noteworthy was shared by IGS co-director G. Cristina Mora, who described Becerra’s lead as a “model for building a multiracial democracy.” However, data seems to tell a different story. Becerra enjoys a 52% to 28% lead among Latino voters, yet this is hardly evidence of a Latino surge; instead, Latino voters are behaving similarly to other demographics.

California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger—over 20 years ago. So, the numbers presented here don’t tell a promising story for Hilton.

While two candidates with starkly different visions offers an exciting political landscape, it puts pressure on the majority party to defend its record rather than simply contrast with their opponent.

Speaking of records, that’s where the current administration’s tenure, led by Governor Newsom, paints a complicated picture: soaring housing costs, safety concerns, ongoing issues with high-speed rail, and taxpayer-funded healthcare for undocumented immigrants highlight a careless governance atmosphere.

Hilton’s campaign struggles with presenting competence and accountability, in a state long dominated by one party.

Becerra, in contrast, faces no pressures to make daring moves; he’s expected to maintain a low profile, framing discussions around Trump and Hilton rather than on him personally.

Yet, undecided voters create an underlying tension. Hilton’s potential to scrap together a competitive narrative rests on Becerra making serious missteps. These moments of administrative trouble could sway voters towards rethinking their choices. However, it’s equally essential for Becerra to maintain his edge, especially since he’s better positioned to capitalize on momentum.

Ultimately, the poll suggests that the race isn’t contested. Rather, it illustrates a comfortable lead for Becerra, with Hilton trailing and any chance for a turnaround depending heavily on Becerra’s potential miscalculations.