Xi Jinping visits a ‘Sinosceptic’ Europe

Chinese President Xi Jinping received a warm welcome when he visited Europe in March 2019. The Chinese leader’s visit to Xi Jinping began in Rome and was celebrated as Italy became the first G7 country to sign up to China’s multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative. Initiative (BRI).

In France, President Emmanuel Macron invited the German Chancellor, China’s most important European trading partner, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for joint talks with Mr. Xi and arranged a mini-summit. While President Macron is promoting new policies, EU strategy Supporting multilateral rather than strictly bilateral relations, French businessmen also signed several Contract value is $40 billionIncludes the purchase of 300 Airbus airliners.

Those were the days. Chinese investment in Europe had reached 150 billion euros as governments were keen to boost domestic growth. European companies are lining up to enter the Chinese market, with trade between the EU and China exceeding 500 billion euros a year, much of it in favor of China. Following a diplomatic slap in the face from President Donald Trump, European leaders were looking for ways to become more independent in dealing with the world’s second-largest economy. Among the newest EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe, China has successfully sponsored partnerships there, which have grown. 17 states by 2019.

Five years later, hopes for “win-win” cooperation have been replaced by what has been called “China skepticism.” Domestic and international changes have made the European environment even colder, and Xi will only sample it individually on this visit.

Globally, the impact of the coronavirus was exacerbated by strict lockdowns in China, slowing international trade and contacts between Europe and China. At the same time, business activity has increased as China’s presence in Europe has become more prominent. and the E.U., complained of “disproportionality”, unfair trade practices and discriminatory treatment of investors. A comprehensive EU-China investment agreement designed to address such issues has been painstakingly negotiated and sank Britain, China’s main partner, left the EU in the same year.Chinese government initiatives in Eastern Europe foldedExcept for good relations with Hungary.

Domestic changes also had a major impact. The new government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who took power in Italy in 2022, has eradicated its callousness towards Europe. Increased skepticism towards China It started under his predecessor Mario Draghi. Rome has repeatedly blocked Chinese investment in key industries and withdrew from the Belt and Road Agreement at the end of 2023. Meloni’s administration strongly supports the US position on maritime freedom in the South Pacific, supporting it with plans to deploy aircraft carriers to the region. Mr. Xi will not visit Italy on this trip, instead making stops in China-friendly Hungary and Serbia.

At the supranational level, the changing of the guard in Brussels has ushered in a leader who seeks to flesh out China as a “state” into the bones of the EU’s strategic vision.system rivals” Brussels worked on multiple surveys Preventing Chinese subsidies and other unfair practices that support exports of electric vehicles, solar panels, and medical equipment to Europe.

In the United States, Mr. Trump’s defeat allows the clearly pro-European Biden administration to become a mutually concessionary partner on: trade and plan of Strengthen transatlantic cooperation on high-tech risks and investment screening issues. Leaders in Europe and the United States face a tough election season, and their desire to be “tough on China” has created an environment very different from the one Mr. Xi found himself in five years ago.

This change came at a bad time for China’s leadership.Slowing growth, low prices, and now A cautious foreign investment community It undermines Beijing’s ability to continue providing its citizens with a better life. The dilemma for Mr. Xi is how to maintain this growth without triggering a trade war with global rivals. Currently, China faces both industrial overcapacity and human resource underproduction. The country’s birth rate is well below replacement level, but it has not yet imposed the necessary and costly mandates. policy change.

These dynamics are at the root of Xi Jinping’s use of nationalism in exchange for increased prosperity. China’s assertive territorialism in the South China Sea and new operations toward Taiwan are both raising concerns in Europe.

But the most serious issue for Europeans is China’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite its pretense of being a champion of the weak, Beijing echoes Moscow’s justification for the war and condemns the United States and NATO. Mr. Xi, who professes neutrality, has done little to hasten the end of the war. On the contrary, China has become a major buyer of oil and gas that Russia cannot sell elsewhere, and provides technology, manufactured goods, and consumers. Goods to Russia. Of greatest concern are trade in machine tools, microelectronics, and drones. According to US intelligence agenciesenabling Russia’s war effort.

EU leaders have openly expressed their disappointment with China’s position, and this is likely to happen. encourage Mr. Xi To play a more active role in ending the war.Public attitudes towards China in Europe are changing rapidly clearly in the negative direction This trend has intensified since Xi’s last visit, as Europeans endure fuel cuts in their homes and businesses due to sanctions against Russia.

In such an environment, it is highly unlikely that significant progress will occur. Summits between the EU and China have so far featured “frank” and “frank” discussions, along with less roundabout criticism. 2022, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell a label is attached These are “deaf dialogues”. For now, the factors that bind Europe and the United States, China and Russia, appear to be changing only in small parts.

But margins matter. Trade and investment issues, while thorny and closely tied to domestic politics, are often the most flexible. To avoid undermining mutual trade and trust, promises can be made and “gentlemen’s agreements” concluded. The EU and China already have enough joint committees in place to prepare for studying issues such as equal access to foreign investment.

While such small steps may not generate the headlines like Italy’s BRI membership five years ago, they may be useful and welcome in the current China-sceptic environment.

Ronald H. Linden is a former professor of political science and chair of European Studies at the University of Pittsburgh.