Xi Jinping Skips BRICS Summit in Brazil
Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be present at this week’s BRICS summit in Brazil, an unprecedented move for a Chinese leader. His sudden decision has led to much speculation about possible internal political issues within China, as well as the cohesion of the BRICS group itself.
The official reason provided by China was a “scheduling conflict.” However, this, combined with the fact that Xi had previously met with Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva earlier this year, has raised eyebrows. Prime Minister Li Qiang will represent China at the summit instead, a clear sign of Xi’s diminishing global presence.
Gordon Chan, an expert on US-China relations, expressed skepticism about the official explanation. He commented, “That doesn’t make sense. Not only is Brazil there, but many other countries are also part of the BRICS Summit. Xi’s absence indicates something is off at home. There are signs that he might be losing control over the military, and this could reflect an internal power struggle.”
Bryan Burack from the Heritage Foundation believes Xi’s absence underscores deeper issues. He mentioned that nations like Brazil and Indonesia have hinted at imposing tariffs on China, suggesting growing discontent within the bloc.
Tensions with India and Trade Pressures
Some analysts are pointing to the rising tensions between China and India as a reason for Xi’s absence. According to one expert, “China and India have had long-standing conflicts. Their opposing interests complicate any immediate changes in relations.”
Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to take a prominent role during the summit, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is only likely to participate through video link.
BRICS: Unity Amidst Division
Initially formed by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa later joining, BRICS intended to act as a counterweight to the G7. Recent entrants like Egypt and Indonesia have aimed to strengthen its economic influence.
Economist Christian Briggs pointed out that BRICS, now boasting 12 full members and 23 partners, represents over 60% of the world’s GDP and nearly 75% of its population. However, the alliance lacks true ideological and strategic cohesion. A notable expert stated, “It’s a group of countries that have significant internal conflict.”
Currency Ambitions and Strategic Differences
The idea of BRICS challenging the dominance of the US dollar through various alternative payment systems has gained traction, although some experts caution that this threat is overstated. Burack remarked, “The interests of these countries diverge significantly. There’s more hype than actual risk of the dollar being challenged.”
Nevertheless, Briggs believes that BRICS members are indeed changing global currency flows by shifting towards currencies like the digital yuan, rupee, and ruble.
Is BRICS a Long-Term Challenge to US Influence?
Although internal division remains, BRICS poses a potential long-term challenge to US influence, especially in regions where the US has retreated diplomatically. Briggs noted, “China has stepped into the gaps left by the US in places like Africa.”
Interestingly, some see India’s participation as a stabilizing factor within the group. A comment pointed out that as long as India is part of BRICS, there remains a balance to counteract any anti-Western tendencies.
Missed Opportunities or Strategic Confidence?
Perceptions of Xi’s absence vary. Some view it as a sign of instability within Beijing, while others interpret it as a demonstration of China’s confidence in managing BRICS relations. Briggs remarked, “With Xi’s power, he can easily delegate matters. China is already trading with nearly 80% of the world.”
Ultimately, the evolving nature of BRICS and the implications of Xi’s absence is a conversation point at this summit, raising questions about whether it signals a retreat or a strategic recalibration in China’s global stance.
