XRP Price Movement and Future Projections

XRP has dipped below the $1 support level twice in a five-day span, reaching a 52-week low of $0.9915 on August 11, and again dropping beneath that mark on August 14. The previous occasion when XRP lost its $1 support was back in 2021, and it took nearly three years to regain it.

At present, XRP is approximately 46% down from its price of $1.88 at the start of the year. So, what’s next for XRP as buyers are trying to hold onto the $1 threshold?

XRP’s Performance After Losing $1

Between August and November 2021, XRP fluctuated between $0.90 and $1.30 as the broader cryptocurrency market faced declines, finally closing below $1 on November 26, 2021. The SEC lawsuit against Ripple, which began in December 2020, kept a lid on XRP’s potential. Many exchanges dropped the token, and institutional investors stayed on the sidelines because of the regulatory uncertainties.

Subsequently, XRP remained under $1 until the Terra/Luna crash in 2022, which intensified the sell-off, causing XRP to fall to around $0.29. The FTX collapse later that year added to its struggles, with XRP staying under $0.50. Throughout 2023, XRP made various attempts to reclaim the $1 level but struggled to maintain it due to ongoing regulatory issues.

On November 16, 2024, XRP managed to regain the $1 mark following Donald Trump’s reelection. Eight months later, it even peaked at $3.65, although that increase was short-lived as market sentiment soured. More recently, on August 11 and 14, XRP again fell below $1, although it later bounced back to its current trading levels.

The Significance of the CLARITY Act for XRP

Regulatory clarity plays a significant role in XRP’s trajectory, with the CLARITY Act being a key driver. After a 15-9 bipartisan vote by the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, XRP’s price surged above $1.50, subsequently retreating to around $1.40.

This slight decline was likely due to profit-taking, as about 1.16 billion XRP had been traded around that price point, with investors eager to break even and around $3 billion in sell orders waiting above it.

The progress of the CLARITY Act has stalled; the Senate has been in recess since May and continued this pause into August without a vote. However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune initiated a motion to adjourn on August 8, with a procedural vote anticipated on September 15. This motion requires 60 votes, suggesting that at least seven Democrats will need to join the 53 Republicans. Analysts from Galaxy Research predict that even two Republicans might vote against it, potentially increasing the need for support to nine votes. Should the Act pass, XRP might rise towards $1.50 in September and could even touch $2 after a full Senate vote, although Galaxy Research estimates only a 10% chance of the bill passing before 2026.

Other Potential Catalysts Affecting XRP Price

While the CLARITY Act garners a lot of attention, there are other factors that could also help propel XRP back above $1.

Ripple’s Expansion in Cross-Border Payments

In 2026, Ripple expanded its network for cross-border payments by partnering with major financial institutions like Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, and Mastercard. Additionally, it secured full EU authorization for the MiCA Crypto Asset Service Provider license and the EU Electronic Money Institution license, allowing Ripple to serve institutions across all 30 EEA countries through one regulated payment relationship.

Even though these transactions did not influence XRP’s price directly, as they were conducted on Ripple’s payment infrastructure without requiring anyone to purchase XRP, they remain significant. If the CLARITY Act is enacted, it could provide institutions the regulatory backing and infrastructure necessary to utilize XRP, potentially pushing its price closer to $2.

XRP ETF Dynamics

Since its launch in November 2025, the XRP ETF has attracted cumulative inflows of $1.51 billion, indicating sustained demand from institutional investors, even amid a broader market downturn. Nevertheless, this year has seen a steep decline in inflows, with just $3.27 million reported for August, indicating a 93% drop for the week ending August 8.

If the monthly inflows hit the May level of $131.94 million again, it could reduce market supply, creating upward pressure and helping XRP maintain its position above $1.

Consequences of Failing to Recover $1

Even though XRP briefly dipped below $1 twice in August, buyers managed to push it back up each time. However, if it fails to recover this level in the near future and market conditions do not improve by September, it’s conceivable that XRP could remain below $1, much like it did in late 2021.

If it loses support, XRP might trade between $0.80 and $0.95 in the short run, and if it doesn’t rebound above $0.95 by the fourth quarter, it could slide down to around $0.70.

That said, it’s hard to imagine XRP lingering below $1 for another three years. Such a scenario would necessitate a prolonged bearish crypto market, a setback in Ripple’s international expansion, and a loss of XRP’s current supporting factors, all of which seem rather improbable right now.