The NBA season is only six weeks old, but it seems like many teams are already shifting focus from winning to improving their draft position. The race for the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft has become a major talking point, leading to what some call one of the largest tank races ever. To grasp the potential of this draft class, check out our latest NBA mock draft.
Standouts like Duke’s Cameron Boozer, Kansas’ Darrin Peterson, and BYU’s AJ DiVanza are all heating up for big rewards in June. However, just being one of the league’s bottom teams doesn’t guarantee a top draft pick anymore. Since the NBA altered lottery odds in 2019, we’ve seen some surprising outcomes. For instance, the Atlanta Hawks climbed from the 10th pick to snag the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. Likewise, the Dallas Mavericks moved from 11th to 1st, landing the rights to Cooper Flagg in 2025.
With the current lottery system favoring mid-ranked teams, there’s compelling motivation to take a dive, even if some teams like the Wizards and Nets are well below the rest. The outcome of the lottery—when the true identity of the Ping Pong balls is revealed in May—might lead to some heartbreak. To complicate matters, teams like the Clippers and Pelicans owe unprotected first-round selections to stronger franchises, adding extra tension to the situation.
As we enter December in the 2025-26 season, let’s delve into where the draft order currently stands for 2026. Here’s our forecast for how the lottery might unfold at the end of the regular season.
11. Portland Trail Blazers
Odds for 1st place in the 11th lottery:2%
Odds for 11th lottery slot with top 4 picks:9.4%
By trading for Jrue Holiday in the summer, the Blazers signaled their intent to push for the playoffs instead of tanking. With the Grizzlies and Clippers struggling, two playoff spots in the Western Conference are up for grabs, and the Blazers seem to be in competition with the Suns, who lack a draft pick, for the last playoff spot. Early in the season, the Blazers showed promise, but injuries have hit hard, and they’ve lost seven of their last nine games. Without a steady half-court game, their offensive potential has dropped, and defensively, they haven’t performed as expected. It would surprise me if they fully tank, but if they miss the playoffs, they’ll likely land in the lottery. In case they do make it, they owe a pick to Chicago.
10th Lotto Slot Odds for 1st Pick:3%
Odds for 10th lottery slot with top 4 picks:14.9%
The Bulls started 5-0, but it feels like ages ago now. Currently sitting at 4-10, they’ve lost matches to the league’s weakest teams. They edged past the Wizards by just one point but fell to the Pelicans, Pacers, Hornets, and Jazz, all lower-tier teams. The team has been ravaged by injuries, impacting what was once a deep roster. They are striving to play at a fast pace, but without defensive stops, that strategy is tough to sustain. This is starting to resemble the 32-win season the analysts predicted, and their recent performance doesn’t inspire confidence.
9th Lotto 1st Pick Odds:4.5%
Odds for 9th lottery slot for top 4 picks:20.2%
Although it’s still early in the season, the Jazz find themselves in tanking territory, potentially risking valuable draft picks. Their pick is protected for the top eight but they owe the Thunder an unprotected pick due to a past trade. The Jazz initially showed promise, especially Lauri Markkanen having a standout season and Keyontae George showing improvement. But with Walker Kessler out for the season, their hope for a play-in slot is fading. They might have to shift gears toward losing to secure their future.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
8th Loto Slot Odds for No. 1 Pick:6%
Lotto 8 slot odds for top 4 picks:26.2%
The Clippers’ struggles are concerning for the league. They’re on the hook for an unprotected first-round pick to the Thunder from a previous trade for Paul George. After offloading MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and valuable draft picks, they now risk losing another high-stakes asset to Oklahoma City. The Clippers have talent on their roster—a bit surprising, given their current performance. Even if James Harden is playing well, their defense has taken a hit, and Kawhi Leonard hasn’t been consistent due to health issues. There’s a chance they could pivot by trading Harden and other picks, but that would be a tough setback for their competition. Their season got off on the wrong foot by trading Norm Powell, which they may now regret if it leads to a disaster.
7th Loto Slot Odds for No. 1 Pick:6%
Odds for 7th lottery slot for top 4 picks:31.9%
The Hornets boast a lot of young talent and may be on the upswing as they get healthier. The new face of the franchise is rookie Con Knuppel, the No. 4 pick, who has stood out this season. Meanwhile, Brandon Miller, the No. 2 overall pick from 2023, is starting to shine again after returning from injury. With LaMelo Ball also in the mix, if he can stay on the court, this team has serious creation potential. The Hornets, being so young, have the opportunity to climb the standings significantly, especially with this talented rookie class.
6th Lotto 1st Pick Odds:9%
Lotto 6 slot odds for top 4 picks:37.2%
The Dallas Mavericks are still dealing with the fallout from the Luka Doncic trade. Even though they got the No. 1 pick due to that deal, bringing in Cooper Flagg hasn’t transformed their prospects. With Anthony Davis struggling and Kyrie Irving sidelined, the season already looks lost for the Mavs. Their best option would be to secure another top-tier young player alongside Flagg, especially since they lack control over next year’s draft. The franchise really needs Davis to return to form for a potential trade to salvage the season, although that looks increasingly unlikely.
5th Loto Slot Odds for No. 1 Pick:10.5%
Odds for 5th lottery slot for top 4 picks:42.1%
It seems like the Kings were bound for failure this season with a mix of aging veterans and a lack of promising youth. The trio of Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan probably need to be moved, but the market for them is uncertain. The failed Dennis Schroder trade and the resurgence of Russell Westbrook haven’t helped either. The team’s new decision-maker, Scott Perry, is looking to put his stamp on this team, and at least they have their own draft pick this year, which could allow them to snag a new franchise player.
4. Atlanta Hawks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
4th Loto Slot Odds for No. 1 Pick:12.5%
Lotto 4th slot odds for top 4 picks:48.1%
The Pelicans faced criticism for giving up an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to acquire Derrick Queen during the 2025 draft. While Queen had a promising start, the trade could sting if the Hawks end up with a top-three pick. Interestingly, Atlanta has shown they can thrive even without Trae Young. Young is set to be a free agent this summer, and the Hawks might opt for a fresh talent in the draft if they feel it’s time for a shift. Though the Pelicans look like they might struggle this season, the addition of Queen and fellow rookie Jeremiah Fears brings a glimmer of hope. The Hawks could be quite pleased every time they beat New Orleans.
Odds of 3rd lottery slot when picking 1st place:14%
Odds for 3rd lottery slot with top 4 picks:52.1%
The Pacers’ dismal season could have a redeeming twist if they do well in the draft lottery. After the heartbreaking injury to Tyrese Haliburton during the 2025 NBA Finals and Myles Turner’s departure, the Pacers seem firmly in rebuilding mode. This may be their best shot at securing a top pick to land talent like DeVanza, Boozer, or Peterson. With a healthy Haliburton returning next season, alongside some promising new players, they could be in a good position moving forward.
2nd lottery slot odds when picking 1st place:14%
Odds for second lottery slot for top-four picks:52.1%
The Nets appear to be impatiently waiting for lottery night. Despite a standout performance from Michael Porter Jr., Brooklyn struggles regularly and could be in line for significant changes. Their future hinges on a handful of draft picks, and while some rookies have shone (Egor Demin is exceeding expectations), none seem to be the cornerstone player they’re searching for. The Nets desperately need to find that key player in the upcoming draft, and they could be the team in the most need of luck on lottery night, given their current situation.
1st Pick 1st Loto Slot Odds:14%
1st Lotto Slot Odds for Top 4 Picks:52.1%
The Wizards have shown signs of improvement from their young players, but their wins are lacking. Alex Sarr, the former No. 2 pick, is having a breakout second season, and Kyshawn George is also making progress. Rookie Tre Johnson is shooting well, looking promising. They just need that special player to elevate the team, and a top-three draft pick could be crucial. Adding talents like Boozer, Peterson, or DiVanza might be just what Washington needs. They are still searching for a new coach and additional roster enhancements, but with significant cap space and the top pick, there’s a potential for a brighter future for a team that has long struggled.
