New polls released in three key battleground states show Vice President Harris leading former President Trump.
A Siena College poll released this weekend for The New York Times found that Harris has a four-point lead over Trump among voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 50% to 46%.
The survey, conducted Aug. 5-9, is the latest to show the shifting landscape of the presidential election since Harris replaced President Biden as Democratic national chair last month.
Trump’s polling lead over Biden has grown following Biden’s disastrous defeat in a debate in late June, raising questions about whether the 81-year-old Biden is physically and mentally capable of remaining in the White House for another four years.
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Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, appear onstage together during a campaign event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on August 6, 2024. (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)
Democrats quickly rallied around Harris as calls grew within the Democratic Party for Biden to withdraw from the presidential race once his reelection bid ended on July 21.
Three weeks after Biden’s shock announcement, a series of polls across the country and in key battleground states show the race between Harris and Trump is within the margin of error.
Harris and Waltz engage in fierce battles with Trump and Vance in battleground states
In a field that included Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West, Ms. Harris holds a two-point lead over Mr. Trump in Pennsylvania, a five-point lead in Michigan and a six-point lead in Wisconsin, according to new polls.
Kennedy had approval ratings in the low teens in some polls earlier this year, but new surveys have him in the mid-single digits.
Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, left, greets Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally at Georgia State University in Atlanta, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/John Bazemore) (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
The polls were conducted shortly before and largely after the vice president announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Tuesday as his running mate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024.
The two teamed up to hold large rallies in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, and in Wisconsin and Michigan on Wednesday.
These three states were known as the Democratic “Blue Wall” and had been reliably victorious for Democrats in presidential elections for nearly a quarter century until Trump narrowly won the White House eight years ago.
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While President Biden defeated President Trump in 2020 and narrowly won back all three states, these states are still expected to be highly competitive in the 2024 presidential election.
of The New York Times/Siena College Poll The survey was conducted among 619 likely voters in Michigan and 661 likely voters in Wisconsin between August 5 and 8. The Pennsylvania survey was conducted among 693 likely voters between August 6 and 9.
Former President Trump is set to debate Vice President Kamala Harris. (Photographer: Dustin Chambers/Bloomberg via Getty Images | Photographer: Hannah Beyer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The sampling margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4.3 percentage points in Wisconsin, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
In addition to her rising approval ratings, Harris has also enjoyed a surge in fundraising since replacing Biden as the top Democratic candidate and selecting Walz as his running mate.
Tony Fabrizio, the Trump campaign’s chief pollster and top adviser, argues that Harris’s rise in the polls will not last.
“We’re witnessing a kind of out-of-body experience where reality seemed to slip away for a few weeks,” Fabrizio said at a Trump campaign news conference on Thursday.
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