5 key questions as Trump’s first criminal trial begins

Former President Trump’s first criminal trial is scheduled to begin in New York on Monday.

Trump has been charged with 34 felonies for falsifying business records. He denies all charges.

The underlying events revolve around hush money payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal in the final stages of the 2016 presidential campaign. Daniels and McDougal allege they had sexual relations with President Trump, which Trump again denies.

Trump’s lawyers have made several attempts to further postpone the trial, but they appear to have stalled.

There is a big question that stands in our way right now.

How big a spectacle will President Trump create?

New York state law requires Mr. Trump to be present throughout the trial.

The hearing will be held every weekday except Wednesday and is expected to last about six weeks. The trial will not be shown on television, and cameramen will enter the courtroom only briefly each day.

Trump is the first former president to be charged with a crime. His interest could be calculated to be in creating as large and dramatic a spectacle as possible.

The former president has appeared in court like this before, at least once posting a video from his motorcade en route to his arraignment in New York.

President Trump is almost certain to hold impromptu press conferences on a regular basis. He will, as always, claim that this incident and others facing him are part of a politicized effort to thwart his candidacy in 2024.

Of course, there’s a market for this among Trump’s fervent supporters in the MAGA movement.

But his fiery pronouncements, repeated over the weeks of the trial, may have little appeal to devoted voters.

Will Team Trump seek another delay or try to end the situation?

The trial schedule has a clear impact on the presidential election. That would reduce the time Mr. Trump can spend on his campaign.

At this point, that may not be a big issue. Mr. Trump may continue to hold campaign rallies over the weekend, and such events could garner even more attention than usual during the trial. The presidential race has not yet reached the stage where both he and President Biden are expected to campaign seven days a week.

Still, once the trial begins with jury selection on Monday, President Trump may want to get everything done without delay.

It is true that he tried to delay all litigation. But the effort was to postpone all trials, and by extension all verdicts, beyond Election Day. The chances of him achieving that goal in New York seem very small at this point.

In that case, the choice would be binary: Trump would be found guilty or he would be acquitted.

Obviously, a conviction would be very damaging. But from Mr. Trump’s perspective, such a verdict would be less damaging if it came months before voters actually pulled the lever.

The acquittal could be used to suggest that the entire case against Trump is flimsy.

Can the prosecution prove a serious crime?

The crimes Mr. Trump is charged with are generally misdemeanors, not felonies. However, if prosecutors allege, as in this case, that the defendant cooked the books as part of another crime, they may fall into the latter category.

The lawsuit being filed by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) and his team alleges that President Trump falsified business records to conceal violations of state and federal election laws.

Some facts are indisputable. Trump’s then-fixer and lawyer Michael Cohen sexually assaulted Daniels for 13 years just before the 2016 election in order to hide from public view Daniels’ claims that she had had a sexual relationship with him 10 years earlier. paid $1,000.

Mr. Trump then reimbursed Mr. Cohen through his company for payments that were formally classified as fees for Mr. Cohen’s legal services.

Mr. Bragg’s felony case, simply put, is that the $130,000 was paid to further Mr. Trump’s political campaign and therefore should have been declared as such.

But even legal experts who are generally unsympathetic to President Trump have concerns about Mr. Bragg’s strategy.

First, Trump has not been charged with any such election law violations.

Second, it is not even entirely clear whether the classification of the payments to Cohen was false. Paying hush money is not illegal. Mr. Trump could argue that Mr. Cohen was actually doing legal work.

Mr. Trump may also find hope in the unexpected case of a once prominent Democrat.

More than a decade ago, former Sen. John Edwards (D.N.C.) escaped unscathed from six federal charges related to child support payments to a woman he had an affair with and fathered a child with.

These events occurred against the backdrop of Mr. Edwards’ campaign to win the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

At trial, Edwards’ lawyers argued that the payments were not made for political purposes, but to cover up a sensitive and embarrassing personal episode.

The jury acquitted Edwards on one charge, but deadlocked on the remaining charges. The Justice Department dropped the case soon after.

Will Trump continue to attack judges and their families?

Mr. Trump is under a gag order in the case, thanks to public criticism of Judge Juan Machan and the judge’s daughter, Lauren Machan.

President Trump recently accused Lauren Marchand of being a “fanatic Trump hater,” apparently implying that she works for the Democratic Party as a political consultant.

Trump has frequently attacked Marchand himself, which was not covered by his original order barring attacks on witnesses, prosecutors and jurors.

Marchan expanded the gag order after some attacks on his daughter, arguing that Trump’s “pattern of attacks on the family of the chief jurist…does not serve a legitimate purpose.”

President Trump duly fired back on social media, complaining, “They can talk about me, but I can’t talk about them???” Don’t you think that’s fair? ”

President Trump will be reluctant to back down from his trademark attacks. But if he continues, there could be real consequences, up to and including him being jailed.

Are President Biden and the Democratic Party on the same page?

Mr. Biden has largely avoided commenting directly on Mr. Trump’s criminal case. The last thing a sitting president wants is to provide ammunition for Trump’s claims that the incident was politically motivated.

But in the midst of a tough campaign, Mr. Biden began mocking Mr. Trump’s actions to sidestep his legal woes.

Late last month, as President Trump was struggling to raise a huge bail amount for his appeal of a $355 million civil fraud fine, Biden told a crowd of fundraisers that He told a story about “this loser” who approached President Trump asking for help. Overcome debt. ”

Biden’s punchline was that he responded, “Donald, I’m sorry, but I can’t help you.”

More of that could happen as Trump’s criminal trial progresses.

Still, the sharper attacks are likely to come from Biden’s surrogates and other Democrats rather than the president himself.