The European Union’s first defense committee has sounded a serious alarm regarding potential global threats. It suggests that by 2027, we could face some of the “most dangerous moments.” This looming danger comes from a possible coordinated military effort between Russia and China, aimed at challenging Western defenses.
Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s defense and space secretary, echoed concerns expressed by General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s air operations commander. Both officials singled out 2027 as a year ripe for conflict, where simultaneous actions by Moscow and Beijing could significantly test the Trans-Atlantic Alliance.
“The most dangerous moment could be in 2027, when both Russia and China carry out coordinated offensive moves,” Kubilius mentioned at a briefing in Washington.
Grynkewich had previously cautioned that the U.S. and its European partners need to brace for two possible conflicts—one in Europe, possibly in Ukraine or Eastern Europe, and another in the Pacific should China decide to invade Taiwan.
Kubilius, after speaking on Monday, underscored that the U.S. has valid reasons to concentrate on China. “We understand that you, Americans, have real rights and reasons to focus your attention more toward the Indo-Pacific, especially to counter China’s military advancements,” he stated.
The urgency of the situation has been heightened by something referred to as “Davidson’s windows.” This term, introduced by former Indo-Pacific commander Philip Davidson in 2021, suggests that China may try to retake Taiwan by 2027.
Kubilius visited Washington partly to evaluate Europe’s readiness in light of the U.S. shifting its focus towards the Indo-Pacific. Not only is Europe preparing for a change in the U.S. military posture, but also, there are concerns about potential shortages in defense capabilities as the reliance on U.S. support looks set to decrease.
He further conveyed that Europe must strengthen its own defense capabilities, saying, “We’re prepared to take on more responsibility.” However, he hesitated to speculate on what the U.S. might decide in terms of its military commitments.
Moreover, Kubilius aims to reduce Europe’s dependence on U.S. weapons. Currently, around 60% of arms are imported from the U.S., and there’s a hope to drop this to 40% through boosting domestic production.
As part of a wider effort to bolster European military strength, Kubilius is responsible for overseeing a hefty $840 billion framework aimed at restructuring Europe’s defense. This includes a significant loan facility available to member states to help in building their military capacity.
In addition, discussions at the recent NATO summit in Washington resulted in an agreement to increase defense spending from 2% to 5% of each member state’s GDP—a notable shift amid growing global instability.
In a related development, President Trump has committed to providing Ukraine with advanced weapon systems. He mentioned last week that the U.S. plans to send patriots to NATO, which would then distribute them, addressing Ukraine’s long-standing requests for enhanced air defense systems.
Kubilius refrained from detailing any additional weapons that might be included in this package but stressed the critical need to continue unwavering support for Ukraine amidst the ongoing threat from Russia. “China is observing,” he stated, warning that if Western nations appear weak in their support for Ukraine, it could embolden China to act aggressively elsewhere.
