Trump’s Political Landscape: An Update Six Months In

It’s been six months since President Trump’s second term began, and things seem quite different than they were eight years ago for him and the Republicans.

Even if many still find him polarizing, Trump has actually managed to broaden his support and keep it intact. On the flip side, Democrats have struggled to gain any real ground, failing to leverage Trump’s vulnerabilities like they might have back in 2017.

Recently, Trump scored a significant win with his approach to a withdrawal package. He’s also celebrated achievements both domestically and on the international front. There was a notable strike against an Iranian nuclear site, a major adjustment to the budget, and favorable Supreme Court decisions—including rulings on immigration and deportation policies.

Trump seems to be delivering on his promises, much to the satisfaction of his base. This is a notable shift from his earlier term, where he faced a lot more challenges, especially with issues like tax reforms and Obamacare. It’s kind of striking to think about how today’s accomplishments resonate positively with his core supporters.

But, looking at the bigger picture, how is he really faring overall? This question is particularly relevant when considering the Republicans’ tough experience in the 2018 midterm elections, where they lost 41 seats and, consequently, the majority in the House.

His legislative progress was effectively stalled due to ongoing investigations and two impeachment attempts. It seems that division within his ranks hasn’t really changed, and it’s likely to stay that way. According to the polls from RealClearPolitics, his job approval rating as of July 20 was down by about 6.6 percentage points.

Interestingly, he’s sitting at about 45.5% approval now, which is 4.4% higher compared to his numbers in 2024.

Reflecting back to his first term, it’s notable that he’s in a better position now than in July 2017, when his job approval was at a troubling minus 16%. And today, he has a slight edge in one poll showing a 50-48% approval rating which aligns conceptually with his polling for 2024.

These favorable sentiments are trickling down to Republicans in Congress as well. As of July 22, RealClearPolitics had the national average showing Democrats trailing by about 3 percentage points. This rings a bell when we think back over the last few midterm elections; generally, the Democrats have faced losses in the House or Senate.

Right now, polling suggests that Democrats have just a narrow lead of 2.5 percentage points among voters.

It’s intriguing to consider how much has transformed in the eight years since his presidency began. Back in 2017, Trump’s unexpected victory was often downplayed, with some Republicans pointing to Clinton’s weaknesses. The narrative is very different now. Trump’s potential success in 2024 seems particularly impressive, especially given the challenges he’s faced.

During his first term, it felt like control was lost early on, reflected in Congress and their unsuccessful attempts to dismantle Obamacare, leading to significant losses for Republicans in the House during 2018.

Of course, it’s wise to be cautious about projecting future outcomes so early in the cycle.

Polling numbers today are drawn from a wider variety of sources than many previous elections. While Republicans haven’t found a solid footing yet, there’s room for improvement. Trump’s approval could fluctuate too; it’s a mixed bag.

As we approach the 2026 elections, there will inevitably be new and pressing issues. One noteworthy consideration could be related to the Democrats, especially with figures like Zohran Mamdani making headlines in New York.

If Mamdani were to win, it might shift focus from Trump and spark debates around his controversial policy positions, which many consider too extreme. This could potentially widen divisions within the Democratic party.

In the end, while Trump remains a figure of division, his base is not fractured; in fact, it appears to be larger than ever. Democrats haven’t effectively harnessed the opportunity presented by Trump’s controversies, and currently seem more disorganized than their Republican counterparts.