UK’s Economic Dependency on Immigration Questioned by Economists
The argument that the UK requires large-scale immigration to sustain its economy and welfare system is being challenged by government economists, who suggest it is fundamentally flawed and may exacerbate economic issues.
David Miles, a senior figure at the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), has encouraged the left-wing government to prioritize re-engaging British individuals who have exited the labor market instead of attempting to resolve the challenges posed by an influx of foreign workers.
Proponents of neoliberal economic views have long asserted that declining fertility rates necessitate mass immigration to maintain a tax base to support the welfare and healthcare benefits promised to older adults. However, Miles emphasized that the concept of rapid population growth alleviating fiscal problems is seriously misguided. He pointed out that the idea of boosting the economy through substantial migration might not be sustainable, as immigrants also utilize public services such as hospitals and schools.
According to current projections, top economists indicate that the UK would require an additional 20 million young people over the next 40 years to maintain current dependency levels.
The OBR disclosed that low-skilled immigration represents an immediate financial burden, as the costs associated with healthcare and social programs outweigh the relatively minimal tax contributions from these immigrants. Taxpayer expenses could reach £151,000 (around $200,000) by the time low-skilled immigrants reach the state pension age of 66.
Miles also noted that while importing a considerable number of foreigners might inflate overall GDP figures, it does not accurately reflect the standard of living for residents. A better measure, he argued, would be GDP per capita.
Thus, OBR economists recommend that rather than tackling economic challenges through large-scale migration, the government should focus on reversing the trend of British individuals being out of work.
The potential financial benefits of increasing the incomes of natives are significant, potentially matching or even exceeding the advantages gained by adding more people to the workforce.
Miles highlighted the concerning number of young individuals claiming benefits for illness or disability to avoid employment, suggesting that the economic gains from reintroducing these individuals into the labor force could be considerable. He noted that evidence indicates working often improves mental health, which has been a critical factor contributing to rising rates of inactivity due to illness.
Earlier this year, Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer also recognized that the anticipated economic benefits of mass immigration have not materialized, referencing stagnant economic growth amid record immigration levels. However, he later retreated from his stance after facing backlash from his left-wing supporters, cautioning against the notion that Britain risks becoming a “stranger island.”
