Cornyn and Paxton in Tight Race for Texas Senate Primary
A recent survey from Emerson College suggests that Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in a competitive battle for the state’s Senate seat.
The poll results indicate a near tie, with Cornyn slightly ahead at 30% compared to Paxton’s 29%. Additionally, 5% of respondents prefer another candidate, while 37% remain undecided. These numbers are notably closer than previous polls that favored Paxton, a long-standing incumbent.
“We’re seven months out from the Republican primary, and the contest is heating up between the incumbent and the Attorney General,” commented Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Interestingly, 73% of those undecided expressed approval of President Trump’s performance, implying that his endorsement could play a significant role in the election.
Cornyn mentioned last month that Trump had not yet committed to supporting anyone in the race, although they had discussed it multiple times.
The exchanges between the two candidates are becoming increasingly aggressive. Paxton frequently criticizes Cornyn, referring to him as “Reno,” a term seemingly linked to Republican figures not aligned with Trump. Paxton has hammered Cornyn for his support of aid to Ukraine and for his actions following the Uvalde school shooting in Texas in 2022.
Cornyn, meanwhile, has highlighted his voting record as being largely in line with Trump’s agenda.
He has also addressed some of the legal challenges surrounding Paxton, including a 2015 indictment that was dismissed after Paxton agreed to a deal with prosecutors. While the Texas Legislature did attempt to fire Paxton over allegations of misuse of office for personal gain, he was acquitted in the state Senate.
Recent developments in Texas politics have further fueled the rivalry, with Cornyn calling for FBI support to engage with state Democrats who had exited the state to block a Republican-led redistricting effort.
Polling data shows Paxton positioning himself as a stronger Trump ally, even as a poll from Texas Southern University in May suggested he had a nine-point lead. Contrastingly, a Senate Leadership Fund poll showed Cornyn ahead by 16 points.
Even with all this, the Emerson poll results could be a morale boost for Cornyn, who believes that as voters become more familiar with the candidates, they will gravitate toward him. He stated that securing Trump’s backing could change the dynamics of the race.
Allies of Cornyn have argued that he typically receives broader Republican support, while Paxton remains a controversial figure in a state where Democrats hope for surprising wins.
Furthermore, the poll indicated that Cornyn is ahead of former Congressman Colin Allred (D-Texas), leading him by seven points. Paxton, in contrast, leads Allred by five points, with a score of 46% to 41%.
Currently, Allred is the sole prominent Democrat in the race, but state Senator James Tarico (D) is mulling a potential candidacy.
This poll was conducted from August 11th to 12th, surveying 1,000 registered voters, including 491 major Republican voters. The overall margin of error stands at 3 points, with a 4.4-point error margin specifically for the Republican primary.
