Virginia Governor’s Race Tightening Before Election Day

Recent polls indicate that the race for Virginia’s governorship is becoming more competitive as Election Day approaches, now just three months away.

A survey from Roanoke College shows that GOP nominee Earle Sears trails former Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger by 7 percentage points. This information was released on Tuesday. In a prior poll conducted in May, Spanberger was leading Sears by a more substantial 17 points in the upcoming governor’s race.

Dr. Harry Wilson, the interim director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, commented on the situation, stating, “The competition for governor seems to be tightening, but Spanberger still holds the lead.” He noted that while some Republicans appear to have shifted their support back to Sears since the earlier poll, Spanberger’s supporters seem more motivated to vote.

Over the past few months, Spanberger has maintained a lead in various polls against Sears, although the gap appears to be narrowing as both candidates adapt to the final stretch leading up to November.

Sears’ campaign has not addressed how Spanberger governs on topics like transgender issues and sanctuary city policies but has criticized her voting record in favor of former President Joe Biden’s policies. In an ad, Sears stated, “That beltway nonsense just takes us behind us.” This advertisement began airing statewide on multiple platforms last week.

Meanwhile, Spanberger’s campaign has ramped up with negative ads targeting Sears, linking him to Trump’s administration and highlighting questions around government efficiency.

A left-leaning advocacy group that supports veteran initiatives recently announced a $500,000 ad campaign to boost Spanberger’s visibility. Notably, while Spanberger is not a veteran, Sears served in the Marine Corps.

A majority of Virginia voters—52%—expressed more favorable sentiments about Sears’ campaign, suggesting that the state is “going in the right direction.” This marks an improvement from 45% who felt the country was on the wrong track in May. Additionally, half of the respondents approved of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s performance, although he cannot seek reelection due to term limits.

When it comes to favorable ratings, Spanberger has a slight edge over Sears, boasting a net support rating of 8 points. About 44% of voters view her positively, while only 36% feel the same about Sears.

The multimodal survey, which included 702 Virginia residents, was conducted between August 11 and August 15 and has a margin of error of 4.3%. Interestingly, only 14% of voters reported being undecided about their preferred gubernatorial candidate, and a significant 76% expressed strong confidence in their choice.