The recent Alaska Summit featuring President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was significant for reasons beyond merely addressing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It emphasizes America’s concern over its perceived missteps, which have inadvertently strengthened the bond between Russia and China, leading to a sort of alliance that might threaten US dominance globally, a situation reminiscent of the Cold War.
This misjudgment is, frankly, alarming given how it has contributed to the growing China-Russia partnership.
With the US, China, and Russia as the three prominent global powers, the Alaska Summit highlighted Trump’s intention to reshape this triangular dynamic before it becomes more consolidated against America.
The president seems determined to reverse a policy that has shifted these traditional rivals into closer strategic allies, emphasizing the need for greater US-Russia relations.
His message was clear. Shortly after the summit, in a Fox News Interview, he criticized his predecessor, stating that Biden’s actions had essentially united China and Russia, which he deemed detrimental. “If you’re a small student of history, that’s one of the things you don’t want to do,” Trump remarked.
This statement underscores a significant challenge for the US. Longtime rivals—rich in land and resources versus a populous, expansion-minded country—have come together largely due to America’s own heavy-handed policies.
Historically, the overarching US strategy aimed to keep Moscow and Beijing apart. President Nixon’s 1972 engagement with China wasn’t about cooperation but rather aimed at exploiting the cracks in Mao Zedong’s tough regime. The strategy of fostering divisions between China and the Soviet Union was key in containing Soviet influence and ultimately played a crucial role in winning the Cold War.
But since 2022, there’s been a turnaround in this approach. As a response to Putin’s aggressions in Ukraine, the US sought to make Russia economically unstable. Instead, those sanctions merely nudged the Kremlin closer to Beijing, ultimately reinforcing Putin’s hold on power. Now, there’s a somewhat uneasy pairing of the two against what they perceive as a common adversary: the US.
Rather than addressing these powers separately, the US is left facing the reality of a more emboldened China, benefitting from Russia’s ample resources. Interestingly, while Washington has placed sanctions on Russia, China has been subtly expanding its influence in Central Asia, thereby solidifying its grip on that region.
Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia continues to display formidable power. Its military capabilities and resilience under sanctions support the notion that isolation may not be feasible.
On the battlefield, Russia is maintaining strategic initiatives that bolster Putin’s negotiating position, making a ceasefire less appealing to him. The uncomfortable truth for the US is that it risks losing a proxy war that has already cost immense resources.
Trump, clearly mindful of his legacy, sees the need to push for an end to the conflict, viewing it not as failure but as a necessary move to refocus on broader American strategies regarding China and altering the contours of global power.
Among the great powers, China is the only one with the ambition and resources to possibly replace the US as a global leader. In this context, Russia seems comparatively diminished. However, it’s crucial to note that China has emerged as the principal beneficiary of America’s hard approach towards Moscow.
Indeed, the sanctions and the West’s financial tactics have inadvertently turned China into a lifeline for Russia, with Russian exports now largely funneled through Chinese banks, effectively giving Beijing a stake in the returns. Additionally, the long-term energy supply agreements with Russia bolster China’s energy security far more reliably than any maritime trade ever could, shielded from potential military blockades.
The formal alliance between China and Russia is poised to integrate a vast array of resources and power across Eurasia. While the focus on the Ukrainian conflict diverts attention, China’s influence is quietly growing in the Indo-Pacific, which is vital for 21st-century geopolitics.
This is precisely why the Alaska Summit holds significance. Both Trump and Putin seem aware that fostering better relations could shift the global balance of power. For Trump, the objective is straightforward: remedy America’s past miscalculations, disentangle Moscow from Beijing, and reorient focus on the challenges posed by China.
Critics may label this approach a settlement, but it mirrors Nixon’s outreach to Mao, aiming to leverage geopolitical rivalries to maintain American preeminence.
Today, Washington requires similar strategic clarity. Instead of pushing deeper into an unsuccessful proxy conflict, it should prioritize easing tensions with Russia while bolstering defenses in the Indo-Pacific, recognizing that US interests globally are interconnected.
Trump’s tariff-centric approach, evident in his dealings with India, has already compromised crucial partnerships. Yet, his insights into reshaping the US-Russia dynamic could be transformative. If he manages to distance Moscow from Beijing, it could dramatically alter the landscape of international relations, notwithstanding the skepticism that might accompany such a shift.
It’s not about being friends with Russia; it’s more about ensuring that Russia doesn’t end up as a junior partner of China in an anti-US coalition. Achieving this requires an end to the conflict in Ukraine and room for a geopolitical reset.
The Alaska Summit is just the beginning. However, it’s clear that US policymakers may resist acknowledging this shift. Keeping on the current path risks amplifying China’s strength while further weakening the US position. Adapting strategy is not a sign of weakness; it’s a fundamental principle of grand strategy—recognizing when old methods have outlived their usefulness.
If Trump can reshape these major power dynamics, it might help maintain America’s elevated status on the global stage.
