A recent study suggests that wildfires might lead to a significant rise in local deaths, up by about 67% during certain months.
The research identified 82 additional deaths linked to the destructive wildfires that affected Maui, Hawaii, in August 2023.
During the peak week of these intense fires, death rates were noted to be a staggering 367% higher than what was anticipated for that time frame, according to the findings.
“Wildfires can lead to a noticeable increase in overall mortality,” stated Michelle Nakatuka, a co-lead author from New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine.
She added that this indicates the true impact of the Lahaina wildfires is likely more extensive than previously thought.
To gauge the deadly consequences of the fires, the authors first calculated the “all-cause excess mortality rate.” They did this by analyzing demographic data from Maui County spanning from August 2018 to July 2023, while adjusting the findings to exclude deaths due to Covid-19.
Ultimately, the researchers discovered that in August 2023, there were 82 more deaths than expected, reflecting a 67% increase in mortality.
Notably, around 80% of these fatalities weren’t linked to medical issues—this was about 12% more than in other months, suggesting that some individuals may have been unable to access medical care.
Additionally, the proportion of deaths attributed to non-medical reasons surged from 68% to 80% during this time.
“Wildfires can lead to fatalities in numerous ways,” remarked Kekoa Tapala, another co-author from the University of California, Los Angeles.
He acknowledged that while many deaths in the Lahaina event were likely due to direct exposure to flames, smoke inhalation, and burns, disruptions in medical care and lack of medication access might have also heavily contributed.
“Wildfires can complicate existing health issues,” he further noted.
While the total excess of 82 deaths is lower than the reported 102 fatalities for August 2023, the findings are comparable to the 88 fire-related deaths outlined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Nakatuka pointed out the discrepancies might stem from temporary declines in other causes of death, such as car accidents during the fires, similar to what was observed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
She mentioned that some deaths might have occurred after August, possibly due to lack of treatment or worsening of chronic conditions.
The study faced restrictions, including limited access to detailed death certificate data, toxicology reports, and autopsy conclusions.
Nonetheless, she emphasized the importance of utilizing available public health insights in the aftermath of such disasters.
To safeguard Hawaii against similar tragedies in the future, researchers have called for significant policy reforms, including actions to eliminate flammable vegetation and enhance preparedness.
Nakatuka, along with her co-leads, expressed hopes that wildfire prevention strategies will draw on indigenous Kanaka Maoli practices, particularly the revival of traditional agroecology.
They argued such methods could lower the likelihood of destructive wildfires, eliminate dry, non-native grass, and restore pre-colonial water systems.
In the shorter term, Nakatuka emphasized the necessity for those affected by wildfires to have prompt access to medical care.
“Quick and accessible emergency care can save lives,” she concluded.
