K-12 enrollment is experiencing a decline, largely influenced by decreasing fertility rates and various school choice options.
Over the next five years, public schools are projected to lose millions of students. This situation could strain school budgets and potentially lead to more district closures. Experts suggest that schools may need to rethink their operations and compete more effectively with alternative educational institutions.
Between Fall 2019 and Fall 2023, there has been a 2.5% drop in student enrollment, equating to about one million children exiting the K-12 system. Projections indicate that by 2031, enrollment could fall to 47 million from 51 million in 2019, according to the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES).
The decline is primarily attributed to factors under school district control, such as lower birth rates and migration trends from specific states.
“The main contributor seems to be the historically low birth rates in the US,” noted an expert. “Fewer babies means there will be fewer students to fill our public schools. We’ve particularly seen a significant drop in kindergarten and first-grade enrollments recently.”
According to the National Center for Health Statistics, US fertility rates declined by 2% annually from 2014 to 2020, with a notable drop of 3% in 2022.
Another challenge is families relocating from states like California and New York to areas such as Florida.
“In states like New York and California, families are departing from costly urban areas to find more affordable living conditions in the suburbs,” one expert pointed out. “In the past, immigration helped balance out the falling birth rates, but it seems that isn’t enough to keep enrollment numbers steady right now.”
On the other hand, a significant factor affecting school enrollment is the growing number of students leaving public schools for alternatives.
Since the onset of Covid-19, interest in homeschooling and private schooling has surged, especially as policies have made it easier for families to pursue these options and even earn some income from public funds.
Data from Johns Hopkins Institute for Education Policy reveals that 90% of states reporting on homeschooling saw increases in registration for the 2022-2023 academic year.
“The impact of private school choice programs cannot be overlooked,” stated Carrie Harnell, a senior associate at Bellwether. “Educational savings accounts are becoming more widely available across the country.”
Bellwether estimates that about 40% of the K-12 student population has access to some form of educational savings account or voucher. Programs like these may pull traditional public school students towards private options, further affecting public education funding.
A drop in enrollment typically doesn’t bode well for districts. Many schools rely on a stable number of students for financial support. A decline has led to school closures, with research showing that 98 schools shut down in 15 states during the 2023-2024 academic year.
To cut costs, schools have also reduced classes and staff positions.
“When you consider the decline in enrollments, it essentially leads to fewer resources and opportunities for kids,” explained Lynn Johnson, Chief Strategy, Growth and Finance Director at TNTP. “If numbers—and therefore funding—drop, it often results in fewer teachers and larger class sizes. We can also see reductions in valuable programs like art and extracurricular activities, which are crucial for our youth.”
While some schools may need to downsize, experts argue that it doesn’t always have to be viewed negatively. The challenges often arise from state regulations that dictate how funding should be allocated.
“You could end up needing to let go of more experienced staff instead of assessing which teachers are most effective,” he added. “This could lead to maintaining unnecessary positions when, ideally, you should be adjusting to the current student population.”
