Democratic contender Zohran Mamdani appears poised to secure victory in the New York City mayoral election, but he’s set for a tough challenge in a direct matchup, according to a recent poll.
In a head-to-head scenario, Socialist candidates reportedly trail former governor Andrew Cuomo by a margin of 41% to 52%. A survey from the New York Apartment Association indicates that if incumbent Mayor Eric Adams were his only rival, the contest would be much closer, with a 45%-42% split in favor of Cuomo.
Interestingly, a campaign strategist, who isn’t affiliated with Mamdani’s current campaign, suggested the findings might be overly optimistic, considering he faces three competitors in the upcoming November election.
When assessing a full slate of candidates, the poll conducted by Tulchin Research predicts that Mamdani would capture about 42% of the vote. In this scenario, Cuomo would garner only 26%, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa 17%, Adams 9%, and independent Jim Walden 3%.
However, when the two additional candidates are factored out, Cuomo’s lead over Mamdani shifts considerably, dropping from 52% to 41%.
“Cuomo is now leading Mamdani head-to-head, benefiting from broader coalitions while Mamdani’s support seems limited to his progressive base,” analysts from Turchin Research noted on August 26.
The research indicates that in a one-on-one match with Adams, Mamdani leads slightly at 45-42%.
One of the Turchin researchers previously worked on Adams’s 2021 mayoral campaign, and the association had backed Cuomo in the Democratic primary this past June, where Mamdani triumphed over Cuomo and a number of other local candidates.
Some commentators have dismissed these poll results as unrealistic. “It seems like a fantasy vote commissioned by Andrew Cuomo,” remarked Democratic strategist Ken Friedman, asserting that if the election were held today, Cuomo would struggle to defeat Mamdani in direct competition.
Participants in this poll were not questioned about a potential showdown between Mamdani and Sliwa.
“These results are precarious in terms of credibility,” said Sam Ruskin from Slingshot Strategies, who previously assisted another Democratic candidate in the primary. He added, “They’re trying to create situations that don’t reflect the current reality. It might be better for them to just face the truth.”
In the primary election, many polls had provided inflated figures for Cuomo while downplaying Mamdani’s support. Mamdani appears to attract younger voters significantly, particularly those under 40.
Interestingly, a poll targeting apartment owners found that nearly two-thirds of the respondents (63%) were above 50, while just 37% were younger.
Sliwa, a Republican and founder of the Guardian Angels, is a strong third-party presence in this race, maintaining that he will not withdraw.
Analysts suggest that Sliwa may actually perform better than anticipated in the general election, resonating with voters despite the polls indicating otherwise.
Excluding a party primary tainted by a corruption scandal, Adams is trying to portray himself as an independent candidate, despite his low standings in the polls.
The poll surveyed 1,000 voters via phone and online interviews between August 7 and 14. It carries a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. Of those surveyed, 74% identified as Democrats, 12% as Republicans, 11% as independents, and 3% as “other.”
