Market Overview

The S&P 500 index is down by 0.04% today, while the Dow is up 0.20%. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 index has seen a decrease of 0.32%. September e-mini S&P Futures have dipped by 0.03%, and September E-Mini Nasdaq futures are down 0.28%.

Stock indexes are generally lower today, influenced by rising bond yields and concerns voiced by President Trump regarding the Fed’s independence following comments from Governor Lisa Cook. The ten-year Treasury yield has risen by 2 basis points to 4.28%. Additionally, the semiconductor market struggles are affecting technology stocks and the broader market. There’s a noticeable drop in trading activity as everyone waits for NVIDIA’s revenue report, which is anticipated to shed light on the ongoing AI boom.

Comments from New York’s Federal Reserve President Williams today were fairly neutral. He highlighted a slowdown in the U.S. economy but expressed some optimism about its direction. Williams noted that all FOMC meetings are currently “live” due to fluctuating interest rates, suggesting that it might be suitable to lower interest rates eventually, while maintaining a conservative stance on policy.

In mortgage news, the US MBA mortgage applications dropped by 0.5% for the week ending August 22. The purchase mortgage subindex increased by 2.2%, while the refinance subindex fell by 3.5%. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage ticked up 1 basis point to 6.69%.

Concerning tariffs, President Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs and restrictions on advanced technologies and semiconductors in response to digital service taxes from other countries affecting American businesses. Recently, Trump expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum to encompass over 400 consumer items, including goods like motorcycles and auto parts. These changes came into effect last Monday and affect items currently in transit.

In related tariff developments, Trump extended the tariff ceasefire with China for another 90 days until November. He also announced plans to double tariffs on US imports from India due to purchases of Russian oil. According to Bloomberg Economics, if these new tariffs are instituted, the overall tariff rate could increase significantly.

This week, the market is closely monitoring news around tariffs and potential resolutions to the Ukraine-Russian conflict. NVIDIA is set to announce its quarterly revenue after today’s market closes. Anticipated economic data includes a revised GDP estimate for Q2, expected to rise to 3.1%, as well as predictions for a drop in initial unemployment claims and increases in personal spending and income for July. The Core PCE price index, a key measure of inflation for the Fed, is projected to show a slight uptick.

Futures prices are currently suggesting an 87% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate reduction at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, with a 52% chance for an additional cut at the subsequent meeting on October 28-29.

According to revenue reports, S&P 500 revenues saw a year-over-year increase of 9.1% in Q2, surpassing earlier expectations. Over the quarter, approximately 82% of companies exceeded profit forecasts.

Overseas markets are showing mixed results. The Euro Stoxx 50 has rebounded slightly, up 0.28%, while China’s Shanghai composite index dropped by 1.76%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up by 0.30%.

Interest Rates

On September 10, T-note futures are down by five ticks, with yields for the ten-year notes increasing slightly to 4.277%. Today, inflation expectations rose, causing break-even inflation levels to hit a five-week high. There are significant supply pressures in the market as the Treasury prepares to auction off $28 billion in two-year floating rate notes and $70 billion in five-year notes, which is contributing to the pressure on T-notes.

European government bond yields have also seen declines today, with German yields falling to a 1.5-week low. Meanwhile, the GFK Consumer Trust Survey in Germany unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in five months.

US Stock Movers

Chipmaker weaknesses are impacting the broader market. NVIDIA (NVDA) has fallen by over 1%, leading the Dow’s losses, and other companies like Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Broadcom (AVGO) are down more than 1%. Additionally, LAM Research (LRCX) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have dropped, as have several others within the sector.

JM Smucker (SJM) is down more than 5% following disappointing first-quarter sales figures. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) has dropped over 7% after reporting net sales that fell short of expectations. PayPal Holdings (PYPL) has also declined by more than 1% due to reports of banks blocking certain transactions they deemed suspicious.

SBA Communications (SBAC) saw a decline over 1% after a downgrade from Bank of America. Conversely, MongoDB (MDB) reported strong quarterly earnings, leading to a surge of over 32% in stock price. Other companies like DataDog (DDOG) and Snowflake (SNOW) have also seen increases today.

Kohl’s (KSS) has provided a favorable full-year EPS forecast that exceeds estimates. Meanwhile, NCINO (NCNO) has reported better-than-expected subscription revenue, prompting an upward adjustment for their future estimates. Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) is experiencing gains after being added to the S&P Midcap 400 index. OKTA has also reported stronger revenue than anticipated, and Dynatrace (DT) has seen a rise in value following a positive stock rating from Oppenheimer.

Upcoming revenue reports of interest include those from various companies, slated for August 27, 2025.