Chief Economist Brian Wesbury from First Trust Advisors discussed concerns raised by former Labor Secretary Robert Reich regarding President Donald Trump’s influence on the U.S. economy, suggesting it could lead to stagnation.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York disclosed new figures indicating a growing sense of pessimism among American households about their chances of securing a new job should they lose their current one. This sentiment is reportedly at its lowest since the New York Fed began tracking this data in June 2013.
The Microeconomic Data Center of the New York Fed released an August survey on consumer expectations, revealing that the average perceived likelihood of finding a job after losing one has sharply declined due to economic uncertainties.
Last month, the probability of securing new employment if one loses their job fell to 44.9%, marking a 5.8 percentage point drop.
The New York Fed noted that this decline is evident across different age, educational, and income brackets, particularly affecting those with only a high school diploma.
Economic uncertainty led to a missed growth opportunity in U.S. employment in August
Additional data from August showed an uptick in American expectations around job security. The likelihood of losing their job is perceived as rising, and people are less inclined to quit voluntarily in the next year.
Specifically, the average perceived probability of job loss increased by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 14.5%, which is slightly above the 12-month average of 14%.
Conversely, the perceived likelihood of voluntarily leaving one’s job dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 18.9%, just shy of the 12-month average of 19%.
Bank of America reports see small businesses down 6.7% year-on-year amid tariff increases
Americans are also keeping a close eye on rising inflation, with the median forecast for the coming year increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%. This figure is significantly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
Trump’s administration has called for the end of labor statistics and revisions of employment reports
Expectations for inflation over three and five years remain unchanged at 3% and 2.9%, respectively.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to unveil the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Report later this week.
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The previous report for July indicated that the headline CPI had risen by 2.7% from the previous year, while the Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, saw a 3.1% increase over the same timeframe.
