Recently, when Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) asked Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about the number of Covid-19 deaths in the US from the previous week, Kennedy shrugged and responded, “No one knows.” Yet, there are indeed reliable statistics on this matter. According to the CDC, more than 1.2 million Americans have died from the virus.
Kennedy’s remarks seem to aim at downplaying the severity of Covid-19 and possibly justifying his critical stance against health organizations. I mean, it’s a strange position to take when you look at the data available.
For instance, the Social Security Administration has clear yearly figures on beneficiaries who have passed away. Before Covid-19 hit, the death counts were relatively stable: 2,351,959 in 2017, 2,377,978 in 2018, and 2,378,162 in 2019. But in 2020? That number jumped to 2,772,037—a stark increase of around 400,000 deaths compared to the three previous years.
Fast forward to 2021, and the situation hadn’t improved much, with 2,827,441 deaths among Social Security beneficiaries. That’s a roughly 450,000 increase over the pre-pandemic years. While numbers dipped in 2022, the toll was still high at 2,710,105.
Essentially, from 2020 to 2022, deaths in this group surpassed the totals from 2017 to 2019 by over a million. It’s important to note that Social Security beneficiaries were not the only ones greatly impacted by the virus, but older adults and those with disabilities bore the brunt of its effects.
The figures from Social Security are gathered differently than CDC data. The Social Security Administration typically stops death benefits based on reports received from funeral homes. This consistency in tracking suggests that Kennedy’s idea of “data chaos” is misplaced. The data aligns quite well with significant events during the pandemic.
For example, New York was hit hard when Covid-19 first arrived. Reports from that time indicated a disproportionate impact on nursing homes and long-term care facilities. One study even noted that beneficiaries with disabilities in institutional settings were seven times more likely to die in April 2020 compared to the previous year. This pattern persisted as new variants emerged.
Kennedy’s comments seem part of a broader trend aimed at revising the narrative around Covid-19. Those skeptical of vaccines are eager to portray the virus as less dangerous than it truly was. Unfortunately, such an approach could lead to misguided policy decisions in dealing with future outbreaks.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is laying out its vaccine policies. Recently, the FDA authorized updated Covid-19 vaccines for two groups: individuals over 65 years and younger people at high risk. But there’s a considerable chance of confusion regarding who precisely qualifies as “high risk.”
Research suggests that the risk of death from Covid-19 didn’t vary significantly based on primary disabilities among Social Security beneficiaries. Surprisingly, even mental health issues, like severe depression, seem to elevate the risk, even in the absence of physical conditions.
Moreover, there seems to be a lack of clarity about vaccine access for individuals with serious conditions. During the hearing, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) brought up a stage 4 lung cancer patient who was denied vaccination, highlighting this confusion. It raises questions about Kennedy’s approach to clearly defining who qualifies for vaccinations.
Going forward, it would be wise for Kennedy to set up a clearer communication strategy for high-risk individuals and medical professionals about vaccination protocols.
In the future, Social Security Death Data could serve as a valuable tool in public health discussions and policy-making. Unfortunately, the current government seems to be making data less accessible, as seen when the Social Security Administration recently halted the release of specific data on beneficiary deaths. This was a disappointing move that should be reconsidered, especially if it means making crucial information available again.
David A. Weaver, Ph.D., is an economist and has retired from federal service. His perspectives might not represent those of any organization.
