The upcoming 2025 UN General Assembly (UNGA) might see significant European discussions about unilaterally declaring Palestine’s independence. But, at the same time, it’s set to be a crucial week for the BRICS economic group, which positions itself as an alternative to the established post-World War II international order dominated by the US and Europe.
BRICS gets its name from its original five members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, who came together after the group’s formation in 2009.
Goldman Sachs economists coined the term “BRIC” back in 2001, envisioning a merger of these economies that could rival Western powers. Russian President Vladimir Putin found the idea appealing and hosted the first official summit in 2009. The following year, China invited South Africa to join.
As of 2023, new members like Egypt, Iran, the UAE, and Ethiopia have joined. By October 2024, another 13 countries were granted “partner” status, with Indonesia expected to secure full membership by January 2025.
Argentina and Saudi Arabia were also extended invitations in 2023. However, Argentina has turned down the offer under the new libertarian president, Javier Milei, while Saudi Arabia remains undecided.
The current roster of BRICS presents a complex mix, including less favorable members like Russia and China, aiming to create a counterbalance to US-led groups like the G7. Brazil’s transitional leadership this year has raised questions about the influence of China within the group.
BRICS is undeniably gaining traction. Its collective GDP and population are substantial, yet internal divisions over political and economic matters remain evident. They seem to share a common grievance: a feeling that global systems have long been under US and European control.
According to analyses from the Council on Foreign Relations, BRICS is increasingly recognized as a significant player in global politics, rivaling established powers like the US and NATO. However, the effectiveness of organizations like the United Nations is something BRICS deeply desires, as it relates to their future ambitions.
Despite some economic initiatives aimed at creating an alternative financial framework that bypasses the US dollar, BRICS’s Development Fund is still dwarfed by the capabilities of institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has strained relations among BRICS members. Many believe that the coalition’s ultimate goal is to support smaller nations against the dominance of superpowers. However, endorsing or tolerating Putin’s actions complicates their credibility in this regard.
Within the coalition, India aspires to lead the “Global South” of developing nations rather than yielding that role to China, which could lead to amusing scenarios where resource-hungry economies claim to be ‘developing.’
There are concerns among existing members that the recent expansion could dilute their influence. Some are wary of distancing themselves from the US, especially given the implications of aligning too closely with a China-led bloc.
Because of all this, UNGA may prove to be a critical platform for BRICS, which could be acknowledged as a significant force in global diplomacy vis-à-vis the US, NATO, or G7. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is particularly favorable to BRICS’s aspirations, especially following President Trump’s earlier administration.
Trump’s tariff policies provided BRICS nations with the incentive to unite, but they also fostered uncertainty since they cannot collectively replace trade revenues they receive from the US. His proposals have called US funding for international initiatives into question, realistically challenging the balance of influence.
This isn’t something most members sought to discuss in the past, especially when they were quite eager to compete with Western economies. However, UNGA this year offers limited chances for BRICS to showcase themselves on the world stage, mainly revolving around the Palestinian and Israeli issues and the contentious topic of the Ukraine war.
Ideally, BRICS aims to enhance the role of international organizations, including the UN, but it seems unlikely that the US will resume its financial support anytime soon, with no other nation capable of matching American contributions.
India is currently engaged in diplomatic talks with the US, potentially steering clear of directly opposing positions at the assembly. Meanwhile, Brazil and South Africa are navigating strained relations with the US, while China and Russia remain adversarial.
The more challenges BRICS raises at UNGA, the more it could deter US interest in the UN. The Palestinian issue could test Trump’s patience. If BRICS leaders are smart, they will spend the week emphasizing their admiration for the UN.
