Recent polling indicates a deadlock in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, with Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and former state legislator Jack Ciattarelli (R) each garnering 43% support. This data, from an Emerson College poll released Thursday, underscores a tightening competitive landscape as the November election approaches.
Coming just after their first debate, these results signal a heightened urgency for Democrats aiming to counter Republican attempts to reclaim the governor’s mansion, especially after Trump’s surprising performance in the state last year. This is noteworthy, particularly as Democrats have recorded several key victories in special elections in traditionally Republican areas this year, such as Iowa.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted that Sherrill resonates more with female voters, while Ciattarelli has a stronger appeal to males. There exists a considerable gender gap; women favor Sherrill by a 10-point margin (46% to 36%), while men prefer Ciattarelli by 12 points (51% to 39%). Kimball added that more women, at 15%, remain undecided compared to 6% of men.
Sherrill also seems to be more popular among voters under 50, while Ciattarelli fares better with those over 50. Specifically, younger voters under 40 lean heavily toward Sherrill, showing a 58% to 24% preference. Among voters in their 40s, Sherrill leads by seven points (47% to 40%), but among those over 50, Ciattarelli shifts the advantage to his side, leading 52% to 36%.
Republican strategies are leaning on the state’s affordability issues, particularly in response to rising electricity costs. Kimball noted that 36% of New Jerseyans attributed blame for utility costs to Democrats, while the same percentage was directed at Governor Murphy. Meanwhile, independents appeared divided in their opinions of the governor and utility companies, with 27% and 23% respectively.
Other pivotal topics include property taxes and education. This November, New Jersey is one of two states selecting new governors, the other being Virginia. The outcomes in both states are viewed as reflective of the broader national sentiment toward the two major political parties, despite the individual candidates’ qualities.
The previous gubernatorial race surprised many, where Murphy edged out Ciattarelli by only three points in a state known for its Democratic leanings. Notably, Harris secured the state by over six points in November, though Trump performed above expectations.
Currently, Murphy holds a disapproval rating of 44%, with only 35% approving of his performance, while 21% remain neutral or have no opinion. Comparing this to a similar poll from May, Murphy’s disapproval was at 45%, with a 40% approval rate and 15% neutral.
Murphy’s ratings might complicate Sherrill’s campaign, yet she could benefit from a shifting political climate as Democrats seek to maintain their standing.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill Poll took place between September 22 and September 23, sampling 935 somewhat likely voters in New Jersey. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
