It looks like a government shutdown could start Wednesday as Congressional Democrats push Republicans to fund healthcare, while President Trump seeks to rethink federal policies.
The impending situation could mark the first government shutdown in nearly seven years if an agreement isn’t reached by 11:59 PM on Tuesday, October 1.
Although all government institutions will be affected, many essential functions and payment processes will continue. Still, the specific procedures for opening and closing services may differ from past shutdowns, as the updated contingency plans from various agencies have yet to be made public.
Rachel Snyderman, who manages economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, mentions that the economic repercussions of the shutdown, as well as public sentiment, depend significantly on its duration. “The longer the shutdown lasts, the more serious the economic risks become,” she said.
If the closure begins next week, Snyderman believes that quick negotiations might prevent severe disruptions, unless it extends beyond a couple of weeks.
So, if the government does shut down on October 1, here are some critical aspects we anticipate:
Which benefits will continue?
Direct payments, including Social Security, Veterans’ disability, and retirement benefits, should continue as usual. Programs like Medicare and Medicaid will also remain operational.
These programs rely on government spending, which is somewhat insulated from the annual Congressional funding battles.
However, there may be some delays with customer service due to the limitations imposed by a shutdown.
Food assistance payments from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will technically keep flowing, but under extended shutdowns, some benefits, including those for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), could be in jeopardy.
Snyderman notes that the lifeline for these programs is their budget balance, which sometimes allows for continued operations in the short term.
Reports have cited an unnamed Trump administration official saying that WIC funds could run out by October, putting pressure on Democrats.
What will shut down and what will remain open?
- Closed: Smithsonian Museums and the National Zoo will close, though animal care will continue.
- Open: The US Postal Service will remain operational, funded primarily by its services rather than tax revenues.
- Open: VA Medical Centers and various clinics will continue to operate.
- Not Clear: National parks may face closure. Previous shutdowns saw varied responses, with parks closing in 2013 but remaining open in a limited capacity in 2018-2019. Updated plans suggested that many sites would be closed this time.
- Closed: Public tours of the US Capitol will be suspended. The White House tours are already indefinitely canceled.
- Open: The Supreme Court will likely continue normal operations, as it relies on non-appropriated funds.
Who has to work during the shutdown?
Many essential government workers will be expected to work without pay, which could still lead to delays. Air traffic controllers and TSA workers, for example, are required to work, along with active-duty military personnel.
Some federal employees are deemed non-essential and won’t work, but the specific policies vary by agency.
Fortunately, a 2019 law mandates that federal workers who work without pay will eventually be reimbursed when the government gets funded again.
The ongoing uncertainty around the federal workforce during this situation adds another layer of complexity. The White House’s Office of Management and Budget recently issued a memo urging agencies to prepare for potential layoffs in case of an extended shutdown.
This follows the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that proposed funding for the Department of Defense and tax cuts. However, there were concerns about the clarity of contingency plans and staffing levels.
The judicial system also appears to be in a precarious position. The federal courts have funding that may only last until October 3, raising concerns about their ability to maintain operations beyond that date.
The U.S. Administration has indicated that if Congress fails to secure funding, the judicial branch will need to operate under specific terms.
How did we arrive at this point?
Since the current funding system began in 1977, Congress has funded the federal government only three times without major conflicts. This often comes down to a leverage scenario for lawmakers to negotiate terms with opponents.
Even with a Republican majority in both the House and the White House, bipartisan support is crucial for regular funding, particularly since 60 votes are needed in the Senate to overcome a filibuster.
A “clean” continuing resolution was recently passed by the House, funding the government until November 21, but it was swiftly rejected by the Senate. Tensions escalated as Republicans and Democrats clashed over unrelated issues.
A recent scheduled meeting involving President Trump was canceled, but GOP leaders did meet to discuss strategies with Democratic counterparts. As the deadline looms, there’s increasing urgency for both sides to find a compromise.
Upcoming votes in the Senate are likely to reflect ongoing negotiations as the shutdown deadline nears.
