The Lessons of History: Ukraine and Vietnam

It’s interesting to think about historic amnesia. Perhaps, despite George Santayana’s warning from 1905 about those who can’t remember the past, it’s not all that bad. People often end up repeating significant mistakes even if they are aware of them. Take the U.S. involvement in Vietnam, which seemed to offer no lessons when it came to Afghanistan and Iraq three decades later. What did the U.S. actually learn?

The connection between the Ukrainian War and the Vietnam War provides insight into how current conflicts might develop and conclude. A deeper look reveals more about the aftermath of both situations. In 1954, Vietnam was split into North and South, a clear outcome of historical division and conflict.

The North aimed for unity following its battle with France. Ho Chi Minh, the leader during this time, understood that rebuilding would take a long time, and the struggle was ongoing.

He recognized the faults within southern society—division among classes and various religious groups, such as Buddhism and Catholicism. This set the stage for factions within the Southern revolutionaries, leading to diverging interests from those in Hanoi. Over time, these groups gained more control while the Saigon government struggled to maintain authority. We all know what happened next.

A chain reaction swept Southeast Asia, fueled by fears of a so-called Sino-Soviet Communist block. In 1961, the Kennedy administration made the fateful decision to get more involved, promising to shoulder any burden, ultimately sinking the U.S. deeper into the Vietnam quagmire.

Years later, with nearly half a million troops on the ground, U.S. bombings in North Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos amounted to unprecedented levels. Yet, after 14 years of conflict, funding was cut off, leading to the inevitable fall of South Vietnam. A photo of the last U.S. helicopter lift from Saigon symbolized the folly of that war.

Now, considering Ukraine, it’s curious how one can view it through the lenses of either North or South Vietnam. The Soviet influence can be likened to the North’s support during the Vietnam War, while Ukraine found support from the U.S., the EU, and NATO following the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Unfortunately, parts of Ukraine remain under Russian control, with thousands of troops situated in Crimea and significant Russian-speaking populations in Donbas and Luhansk favoring alignment with Russia.

If we think about North Vietnam receiving backing from China and the Soviets, the parallels stretch to Ukraine being aided by Western powers. Recently, Trump’s focus on reclaiming lost territories echoes Vietnam’s goals, requiring heavy support in resources and weaponry from the EU and NATO.

Just as North Vietnam applied guerrilla tactics, Ukraine has employed drones and missile strikes against Russia, targeting key naval assets. It’s reminiscent of guerrilla warfare, but in a different context.

When viewed as South Vietnam, Ukraine shares some similarities but also notable differences. Unlike the fragmented government in South Vietnam, Ukraine’s military is cohesive and motivated. The potential downfall of Ukraine might not just lie with Russia’s size; it could resemble how aid cutbacks sealed South Vietnam’s fate. A decision by Trump that affects European support could lead to unintended consequences.

The differences run deeper as well. While losing South Vietnam carried minimal strategic ramifications, Ukraine’s failure could reshape the regional landscape significantly.