Spanberger Leads in Virginia Governor Race

Former Congressman Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) holds a 10-point advantage over Lieutenant Colonel Winsam Earl Sears (R) in the Virginia governor race, based on a new Emerson College Poll and a related survey released by The Hill.

When respondents were asked how they would vote if election day were tomorrow, 52% said they would choose Spanberger, while 42% indicated they would vote for Sears. About 6% were still undecided.

This poll, taken from September 28th to 29th, follows early voting that began on September 19th, where 146,223 votes were counted in the first week, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Additionally, the survey reveals that 60% of voters have already cast their ballots for Spanberger, compared to 38% for Sears. Spanberger also leads among those who have yet to vote, garnering 50% support over 43% for Sears.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of voting at Emerson College, noted an uptick in Spanberger’s backing from independent voters, men, and younger demographics.

“Independent voters favor Spanberger by a 19-point margin. This is a shift from January when Sears had a four-point lead among those voters,” he remarked. Interestingly, support among men, who typically lean Republican, has shifted from a 15-point lead for Sears to a tie, with 46% for each candidate.

The support for Spanberger has also strengthened among voters under 50 years old, moving from a 41% to a 39% split to a significant lead of 59% to 32%. Conversely, Sears has struggled to solidify support among older voters. In January, this group was evenly divided with 43% for Spanberger and 42% for Sears.

These results align with polling averages from Decision Desk HQ, suggesting Spanberger is likely to lead with about 50.1% to 43.1% for Sears.

The overall sample size for the Emerson College/Hill poll was 725, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.