Several notable resignations in housing and various rezoning battles are paving the way for both parties to vie for multiple seats in the upcoming elections.
Representative David Schweikert (R) from Arizona, who has represented a crucial district, has announced he won’t run for re-election but will instead pursue the governorship, which might create a rare opportunity for Democrats.
Democrats also feel they’re inching closer to establishing a second legislative district in Nebraska after Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) revealed he wouldn’t seek reelection this coming June.
Meanwhile, the more extensive rezoning discussions have led to a flurry of activity between the political parties.
Let’s explore some key pickup opportunities for both Republicans and Democrats.
Democratic pickup targets
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
Schweikert declared on Tuesday that Republicans will vacate their seats in the Northeast Phoenix suburbs as they aim to unseat the Democratic governor next year. Schweikert, who has been in office since 2011, won his last election narrowly against Democrat Amish Shah, a doctor and former state lawmaker, who will again challenge for the seat. Donald Trump had a slight advantage in this district during the last election cycle, according to Downballot.
The nonpartisan political report views this seat as quite competitive.
Nebraska’s Second Congressional District
Bacon announced his retirement late June after completing a decade in the House. He has been a formidable candidate in the district, notably defeating former Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.) in his first election back in 2016. His choice to retire centers on spending more time with family. Analysts rate this district as leaning Democratic.
California’s 1st Congressional District
If California voters approve a new congressional map this November, Democrats could gain several House seats. The updated boundaries are aimed at mitigating the advantage Texas Republicans might gain. One Republican facing a potential loss is Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) from California’s 1st District. Representing Northern California since 2013, he previously enjoyed a significant victory margin. However, the proposed map would alter his district considerably, dividing it into three parts and enhancing opportunities for Democrats.
California’s 3rd Congressional District
Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), a former state legislator, might find himself in tougher competition if voters back a map favoring Democrats. His district, which includes much of the California-Nevada border, is already competitive. Trump won by a slim margin here during the last cycle, and he’s projected to lose ground under the proposed changes.
California’s 41st Congressional District
Another key player in California’s rezoning is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), who has been in office since 1993 and represents a district in Riverside County. Calvert’s district is competitive, with Trump winning by nearly six points in the last election, and the new map could offer Democrats a safer opportunity. Based on previous voting patterns, this altered district could tip decisively in favor of Democrats.
GOP pickup targets
Texas’ 34th Congressional District
Texas Republicans are reshaping congressional boundaries, ostensibly to secure more seats for the party following pressure from Trump. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) presently represents a district in southern Texas that is leaning GOP in the new map. Analysts suggest the revised district would be competitive, leaning slightly Republican, though a lawsuit may complicate the implementation of these changes.
Texas’ 35th Congressional District
Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) faces uncertainty as redistricting transforms his seat, predominantly shifting it to a San Antonio-focused district. This new arrangement effectively alters it from a Democratic stronghold to a more competitive landscape.
Missouri’s 5th Congressional District
Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), who has served since 2005, could be in jeopardy thanks to redistricting efforts that dilute his base. The new district map splits Kansas City into three parts, affecting Cleaver’s re-election prospects significantly.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), the longest-serving woman in Congress, has consistently fended off Republican challenges. Her district, which encompasses the northwest corner of Ohio and includes Toledo, swung towards Trump in the last election cycle. With potential redistricting, Kaptur could face substantial hurdles in maintaining her seat.
Ohio’s 13th Congressional District
Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) is seen as a principal target for Republicans during the upcoming map adjustments. She secured her seat by a narrow margin, and the political landscape may shift further against her in the redistricting process.
