On Wednesday, Congress found itself in its eighth day of federal shutdown, with no apparent progress towards a resolution by either side.
It seems that to reopen the government promptly, some concessions will need to be made. Pressure from external factors is likely to be the impetus that nudges one, or possibly both, parties toward compromise.
Past government shutdowns have shown that a mix of economic signals and public dissatisfaction have pushed lawmakers into making concessions, often postponing policy debates for another time.
Here are five critical points that might help in breaking the current deadlock.
National Sentiment
Abraham Lincoln famously stated, “National sentiment is everything,” and at present, there is uncertainty about where the public sentiment lies during this shutdown. Both parties seem to be analyzing which side is more at fault as they await polling data that could sway their positions. Historically, shifts in public opinion have prompted one side to pivot, especially in high-stakes situations like this.
A CBS poll recently indicated that 39% of voters hold Trump and the Republicans responsible for the ongoing closure, while 30% blame Congressional Democrats, and 31% criticize both equally. Polls from Harvard and Harris suggested a similar trend, with slightly more respondents denouncing Republicans. Interestingly, a significant portion of voters believes Democrats should go along with temporary funding measures without seeking changes to the Affordable Care Act’s premium subsidies.
This uncertainty has intensified the partisanship, pushing both sides to hold firm until clearer public sentiment emerges.
Air Traffic Controller Issues
Almost seven years ago, a 35-day shutdown concluded due to severe disruptions in air travel prompted by shortages of air traffic controllers. Unfortunately, similar issues seem to be resurfacing now. Complaints about health issues among controllers surfaced recently, leading to numerous flight delays that echo past troubles.
“We should all be worried,” remarked Senator Mike Rounds after an informal consultation on possible resolutions last week. Essential workers, including TSA officials and air traffic controllers, are now working without pay during the ongoing shutdown.
The situation has resulted in significant delays at major airports; for example, there were no controllers at Hollywood Burbank Airport for almost six hours on Monday. Democrats are hoping that this contributor will put pressure on Trump and his party, as noted by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who plans to highlight these issues at a press conference at Baltimore-Washington International Airport.
Salary Challenges
The ongoing government shutdown has brought forward significant concerns about reduced federal services and the fate of hundreds of thousands of federal employees. Some are still required to work but without pay, while others are furloughed. The reality is that no one will receive payment until the government reopens, with the first missed paycheck coming on October 10th.
This situation can become dire for both these workers and their families as they struggle to manage their finances. Additionally, the broader economy feels the impact as federal employees cut back on daily expenses, affecting local businesses.
The White House Economic Advisory Board estimates that a shutdown could drag down the weekly GDP by $15 billion. House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized the severity of these economic losses, forecasting that one month of shutdown could also result in more than 43,000 lost jobs across the private sector.
Military Salaries
Discussion around military salaries has resurfaced amid the current shutdown. There’s potential discomfort, as military members may not receive their paychecks on October 15th. Speaker Johnson recently met with Senate Republicans, expressing intentions to secure votes in the House to address this issue promptly.
“I’m certainly going to accept that,” he stated, noting that measures have been previously taken to ensure troops get paid. However, the looming problem for him is that the House isn’t expected to reconvene until at least Monday, and he hinted at possibly keeping Congress on hold until the shutdown is resolved.
While Democrats share these concerns, Johnson seems to be more focused on other pressing issues. Senator Chris Murphy commented on the situation by questioning Johnson’s commitment to action when he hasn’t called his colleagues back for a vote.
Healthcare Issues
Healthcare has emerged as a pivotal topic, especially regarding the Republicans’ temporary funding bills. Democrats are advocating for a permanent extension of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which are set to expire soon. Republican leaders, however, have shown reluctance to negotiate this matter during the current standoff, asserting there’s time to address it later.
However, as the October 31st deadline for ACA enrollment looms near, insurance companies have started notifying patients about potentially steep increases in out-of-pocket costs for next year, depending on the future of these subsidies. If Congress fails to act, projections suggest that average premiums could skyrocket by as much as 75% for those on ACA plans.
This pressure, combined with the impending enrollment period for ACA, means that patients will soon need to make decisions about their coverage. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned that insurers are not waiting around, stressing urgency for action.
