Hamas has initiated a series of summary executions and claimed authority over parts of the Gaza Strip that Israel has vacated, highlighting the difficulties President Trump faces in convincing Hamas to relinquish its weapons and power as outlined in his 20-point peace initiative.
According to reports, Hamas has executed at least 33 individuals since the ceasefire was implemented last week, with seven men reportedly dragged into Gaza City Square on Monday and shot in the back while on their knees, witnessed by a crowd.
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former negotiator for Palestine, noted that Hamas has gained an advantage in reasserting its control over Gaza due to the lack of international security forces and independent governance structures.
“The longer this situation persists, Hamas will not just strengthen its security presence; they will expand their operations into civilian areas—rebuilding, restoring schools, providing healthcare—making it increasingly challenging to dislodge them,” he remarked.
These actions have exposed the complex compromises resulting from the recent ceasefire.
On Monday, President Trump announced the release of the last 20 hostages held by Hamas for over two years. However, this was achieved without insisting that Hamas disarm first. Efforts are now focused on recovering the bodies of 24 other hostages taken during the October 7, 2023 attack.
During a press conference, Trump stated that if Hamas refuses to disarm, “we will disarm them.” His peace strategy permits Israel to resume military action in Gaza if Hamas does not fully surrender. The plan includes handing territories over to International Security Forces (ISF) once freed from Hamas’s grip, though these forces are yet to be established.
The release of hostages marks the first phase of the negotiations within Trump’s 20-point framework, with a second phase centered around whether Hamas will disarm, renounce violence, or be expelled from Gaza.
Majid al-Ansari, a senior advisor to Qatar’s prime minister, reported that a second phase of discussions is underway, with negotiation teams working constantly.
He acknowledged that the upcoming challenges would not be straightforward.
A U.S. official shared on October 9 that dismantling Hamas’s weaponry, the transition to a technocratic government in Gaza, and how Israeli forces would redeploy are among the various unresolved issues.
While Hamas has openly rejected many proposals, another U.S. official commented that this is not necessarily telling of their actual intentions.
“I don’t pay too much mind to public statements from the Middle East. It frustrates reporters, but what’s said behind closed doors and the intended actions are more significant,” the official observed.
“If they don’t disarm, we’ll move to disarm them swiftly and likely with force,” Trump remarked, indicating a deadline for Hamas to comply.
Al-Omari emphasized the need for the U.S. and global partners to stay committed to the negotiations to counterbalance any demands by Qatar and possibly Turkey that could favor Hamas.
He cautioned that any lack of clarity on terms might weaken the peace initiative.
He pondered how comprehensive disarmament would be—would only heavy weaponry be addressed? Would Hamas easily give up rockets but resist parts like machine guns?
Al-Omari also warned against Qatar encouraging the inclusion of Hamas figures within an impartial government or exerting pressure on the Palestinian Authority to cooperate with Hamas in a way that could enable its continued governance.
“This is a potential scenario where the mediator could tilt in favor of Hamas,” he noted.
Still, he expressed support for the U.S.-led Ceasefire Monitoring Center based in Israel, which will be staffed by U.S. troops along with personnel from Egypt, Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey.
Al-Omari shared that the U.S. monitoring efforts seem promising compared to the long-standing ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
However, the uncertainties surrounding the establishment of an international security force and the governance of Gaza could jeopardize the progress made in the ceasefire.
“The notion of Hamas having a head start is spot on,” said Lucy Kurzer Ellenbogen from the Middle East Institute.
“I think we’ll see Hamas use this time to consolidate their power and resources.” The monitoring center is expected to transition into a role that assists training international forces to eventually take control from Hamas.
A senior U.S. official stated discussions are ongoing with multiple nations regarding the creation of the ISF.
It remains unclear whether the U.S. will seek UN Security Council approval to deploy international peacekeeping forces, which would legalize foreign troops entering a region long affected by conflict and displacement.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, who leads the world’s largest Muslim population, mentioned he would consider contributing military forces only with a Security Council resolution. Malaysia expressed similar conditions for troop deployment.
Kurzer-Ellenbogen highlighted the formidable challenges in legitimizing international forces, especially given Hamas’s open rejection of foreign military presence in Gaza. Moreover, any foreign intervention would likely be contingent on perceived U.S. involvement, which is currently ruled out by Trump officials.
“In the end, this environment is going to be very precarious and dangerous,” she added.
While there have been activities from Palestinian security forces in the Gaza region, strengthening these groups poses its challenges amid perceptions of collaboration with Israel, which could deter other Arab or Islamic nations from stepping forward.
“The kind of pressure we’ve seen to facilitate this deal must continue to ensure the second phase moves forward,” Kurzer-Ellenbogen concluded.
