Last month, as President Trump addressed military leaders at Quantico, the atmosphere was tense. Those who dared to voice their opinions risked losing their positions.
Military and intelligence officials are increasingly aware that President Trump’s dismissal of climate change as a hoax is putting national security at risk. Analysts have long warned about the adverse effects of global warming, referring to it as a “Threat Multiplier.” Scientists, such as Kevin Trenberth from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, caution that if global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius by the 2050s, we can expect intensified extreme weather, environmental displacement, and heightened tensions that could spark conflicts involving many nations, including the U.S.
In fact, the U.S. military might find itself repurposed for humanitarian efforts in response to climate-induced destabilization. Worse yet, it could engage in conflicts both within and between nations.
Six years ago, Stanford researchers highlighted the potential increase in armed conflicts due to climate change, estimating that such conflicts would more than double with a temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius. However, that scenario assumes optimistic climate policies, which, as the Climate Action Tracker indicates, could lead to a rise of 2.9 degrees by 2100 under current approaches.
Despite numerous warnings from top military experts since 2007 about climate change being a serious threat to national security—especially noting its destabilizing effects—Trump has largely ignored these assessments. Reports from various government entities over the years have repeatedly stressed that climate change poses a significant risk to the nation’s critical infrastructure and military operations.
For example, the Department of Defense has noted that climate change will affect military capabilities and national security, while in 2015, the National Security Strategy identified climate change as an urgent and growing threat linked to natural disasters and resource conflicts. By 2018, the Department of Defense found that a significant portion of military sites is vulnerable to extreme weather.
Yet, climate change is often not the primary cause of conflict but rather exacerbates existing tensions. Analysts assert that increased foreign aid is essential for stabilizing vulnerable countries. As the National Intelligence Council warns, a lack of investment in communities facing climate emergencies may lead to a rise in violent conflicts.
In stark contrast, Trump has publicly belittled climate change, cut funding for climate research, slashed foreign aid, and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. His administration has even ramped up fossil fuel production while redirecting military resources to conflicts that many do not recognize as real threats. In this context, some argue that the true “enemy within” might actually reside in the White House.
This raises a pressing question: How should military and intelligence leaders react? Clearly, silence isn’t the answer.
William S. Becker is a contributor to various climate-related publications and has served in important roles related to climate policy. He currently leads a nonpartisan climate policy think tank.
