Strategists and pollsters from both major parties see the impending 30-day mark of the government shutdown as a strain on their sides, leading Congressional leaders to possibly seek an exit from the stalemate.
Republicans might position themselves by noting they passed a clean continuing resolution, suggesting the current shutdown reflects a pattern—one they may argue was previously followed by Democrats when they controlled both the White House and Senate.
However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson have a pressing concern: being the party in power typically means they could bear the brunt of public blame for the shutdown.
Republican pollster Whit Ayers commented on public sentiment regarding the shutdown, saying, “Voter frustration spans both parties and the overall system.” He pointed out that many Americans are baffled by the government’s inability to efficiently manage budget matters and keep operations running.
He indicated that Democrats’ position in the House and Senate limits their power, making demands for permanent enhancements to Affordable Care Act subsidies and reinstating significant Medicaid cuts a struggle.
“Without control of the House or the presidency, it’s difficult to see how a government shutdown would compel Democrats to take action against a majority ruling the three branches,” Ayers added.
Democratic strategists recognize the intricacies involved in a government shutdown. They are wary that prolonged conflict could backfire if their side is perceived as unwilling to negotiate.
Polls indicate that more Americans currently hold Republicans responsible for the shutdown than Democrats, although the Democrats’ earlier edge on this issue seems to be diminishing.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,385 U.S. adults showed that 50% blamed Republicans more, while 43% placed the blame on Democrats. Among voters without party affiliation, 51% attributed blame to Republicans versus 34% to Democrats.
The contentious environment in Washington has impacted both parties negatively, with Congress’ approval ratings plummeting from 26% to a mere 15% in an early October Gallup poll.
Democratic strategists contend that while they have a “natural” advantage due to their pro-government reputation, it weakens as the shutdown continues. “Our advantage is still present, but it has lessened compared to where it began,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake remarked.
She emphasized the need for Democrats to convey clearly to voters their commitment to defending health care access, despite the issue being frequently discussed in Congress.
“There’s a perception that both parties are falling short, and voter frustration is growing. I’m not sure we’ve effectively communicated our focus on protecting health care,” she said. Moreover, she suggested that more proactive measures could have been taken to support those at risk of losing health care.
This raises some critical questions for Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries about whether they ought to reconsider their firm stance regarding the funding bill and health insurance subsidies.
Interestingly, a recent Quinnipiac poll from mid-October indicated a rise in approval for congressional Democrats among core Democratic voters during the shutdown, showing a jump to 58% from just 39% in July.
However, overall approval ratings for Congressional Democrats remain low, with just 26% of voters supporting their approach, while a significant 67% disapprove.
“Our base appreciates that we’re showing resolve,” Lake observed. “Had we not, there would have been major backlash—people questioning when Democrats would truly take a stand.”
Senator Dick Durbin from Illinois noted that the “No Kings” rallies, which attracted nearly 7 million participants, reflect voters’ alignment with the Democratic Party’s opposition to the Trump administration.
He warned that the continuation of the shutdown could impact air traffic operations and could lead to significant consequences if funding for health care subsidies is cut.
Polling data reveals that voters tended to blame Democrats slightly more for the shutdown (39% to 36%), but a substantial two-thirds of respondents identified shortcomings in both parties.
Political strategist Steve Jarding feels that the shutdown poses risks for both parties, noting that while blame initially leaned towards Republicans, the dynamics may be shifting unfavorably for Democrats as well.
He mentioned that if the shutdown extends into November, rising health care premiums tied to the Affordable Care Act could intensify pressures on Republicans to negotiate a solution.
“When the impacts hit, especially regarding subsidy cuts, it could become a major issue for many,” he said.
A memo from a polling firm associated with Trump warned that enhancing the health care tax credit could become pivotal in the upcoming election, suggesting that Republicans blocking such measures might give Democrats a notable electoral edge.
Amidst all these discussions, Republican pollsters like Ayers believe that some within the party, including the president, may be inclined to support an extension of Affordable Care Act benefits for lower-income individuals, hinting that some agreement might be possible before year-end expirations.
