Recent polling indicates that Zoran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate, is leading Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral race, although the margins differ significantly across the polls. One poll shows Mamdani ahead by 10 points, while another presents a more substantial 25-point lead.
A Quinnipiac University survey published on Wednesday found Mamdani with a narrow lead of 43% to Cuomo’s 33%, with 14% of voters supporting Republican Curtis Sliwa. This close race follows a prior poll where Mamdani led with 46% compared to Cuomo’s 33%, showing a shift after former Mayor Eric Adams announced he wouldn’t run for re-election.
Mary Snow, assistant director at Quinnipiac, pointed out that while Mamdani leads, Sliwa remains a notable third party. Another poll, from Emerson College/Picus 11/The Hill, released on Thursday, revealed a more significant 25-point difference, showing Mamdani at 50% and Cuomo at just 25% as an independent candidate.
This particular poll noted that Sliwa garnered 21% of the votes, effectively splitting the anti-Mamdani support with Cuomo. Compared to the previous Emerson poll, Mamdani’s approval jumped by 7 points, whereas Cuomo dropped by 3 points, and Sliwa’s support doubled from 10% to 21%.
Furthermore, Mamdani’s standing among black voters strengthened, rising from 50% to 71%, reinforcing his appeal in critical demographics following a primary victory against Cuomo.
A third poll by the Marist Institute showed Mamdani with a 16-point lead over Cuomo, at 48% versus 32%, while Sliwa remained at 16%. A Suffolk University poll indicated Cuomo narrowing the gap with Mamdani, reducing a previous 20-point lead to just 10 points.
Lee Miringoff from Marist suggested that it’s a tough situation for Cuomo, as he struggles to diminish Mamdani’s popularity, which remains favorable among 57% of likely voters. In contrast, 55% of city voters view Cuomo unfavorably, with Miringoff remarking on Cuomo’s erratic behavior.
Interestingly, if Sliwa were removed from the equation, a head-to-head matchup would see Mamdani maintaining only a slim 7-point lead over Cuomo, 51% to 44%. Without Cuomo in the race, Mamdani would have a more commanding lead over Sliwa at 59% to 33%.
Among younger voters under 45, Mamdani held a remarkable lead with 64% to Cuomo’s 21%. Meanwhile, voters over 45 were more divided, with Cuomo at 39% and Mamdani at 38%. Mamdani enjoyed robust support from liberal voters, while Cuomo captured a slight edge among moderates, and Sliwa led with 45% of conservative voters.
Interestingly, even with Cuomo’s past controversies, he holds 55% support among Jewish voters, while Mamdani, despite his critical stance on Israel, attracts a third of that demographic.
The Emerson College poll indicated that early voters favored Mamdani by a notably broad margin of 33 points, while those yet to vote supported him by 19 points. The Emerson College poll surveyed 640 voters between October 25 and October 27, with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. The Marist poll involved 792 likely voters from October 24 to October 28, with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, and Quinnipiac polled 911 likely voters from October 23 to October 27, with a margin of error of 4 points.
