Recent polls indicate that former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (Democrat) is leading her Republican opponent in the closing moments of the Virginia gubernatorial race, while the attorney general contest is proving to be much tighter.
According to the final Emerson College Poll/The Hill poll released on Sunday, Spanberger is ahead of Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl Sears (R) by 55% to 44%. The Democratic Party’s approval rating has increased by 3 points since last month, while Earl Sears has gained 2 points during the same period.
“As we approach Election Day, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has established herself as the clear front-runner for governor,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of the Emerson College Poll. He noted that Spanberger’s support has notably grown among male voters, who had previously been split in their allegiance. Now, she holds a six-point lead in this demographic—52% to 46%. Interestingly, those male voters leaned towards Governor Youngkin by about 12 points in 2021.
On a different note, the race for attorney general is showing a much closer contest. The poll shows Democrat Jay Jones with a slight lead over incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (Republican) at 49% to 47%, with about 4% of voters still undecided. When factoring in the undecided voters, Jones’ approval jumps to 51%, while Miyares sits at 49%.
Kimball explained, “In contrast to the gubernatorial race, early voters appear divided. Many who voted for Mr. Jones express opposition to him, 56% to 44%, while those who have yet to cast a ballot lean against Miyares, 50% to 43%.” Interestingly, the male demographic favors Miyares at 50% to 46%, while the female demographic tilts towards Jones at 51% to 45%.
Virginia elections are seeing fewer evenly split votes these days, yet this year’s race has taken unexpected turns. A controversy emerged when texts from Jones in 2022 suggested he should shoot the then-Republican state House speaker. Although Jones has since apologized and Spanberger criticized the messages without calling for Jones’ expulsion, the atmosphere seems tense, especially with Republicans using this dilemma to counter Democratic support amid other scandals.
Jones could potentially gain from the fact that many voters had already cast their ballots before the scandal came to light. Early voting started in September, and by this weekend, over 1 million Virginians had already participated.
Another element that might benefit Democratic candidates is President Trump’s low approval ratings: 45% of Virginians approve of his performance, while 54% do not. In contrast, Governor Glenn Youngkin enjoys a 49% approval rating with a 39% disapproval rate.
“Notably, over 10% of voters who support Mr. Youngkin are considering voting for Mr. Spanberger, whereas those not backing the governor are unlikely to support Earl Sears,” Kimball observed.
The poll identified the economy as the primary concern for 39% of voters, while threats to democracy come in at 16%, health care at 10%, immigration at 9%, and education at 7%.
In a striking note, Spanberger boasts a 53% to 46% approval rating related to voters citing the economy as the key issue in this runoff, which typically resonates more with Republican candidates.
The Emerson College Poll/The Hill survey was conducted from October 30-31 among 880 likely voters or those who have already cast their ballots. The confidence interval mirrors the margin of error, at plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
