On Tuesday, voters will head to the polls for critical races, including governor and mayoral positions. Observers are keen to pick up hints about the national sentiment as next year’s midterm elections approach.
New Jersey and Virginia are particularly focused on gubernatorial elections and other significant roles. In New York City, Democrat Zoran Mamdani faces off against former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa in the race to succeed outgoing Mayor Eric Adams.
Additionally, voters in California will decide on a new congressional map advocated by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom.
Here’s a breakdown of the key races to keep an eye on during this important 2025 election:
Virginia
Key elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and House of Representatives are taking place in Virginia. Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D) is running against Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears (R) following the term limit of Governor Glenn Youngkin (R). Current polls indicate that Spanberger leads over Earl Sears with 53% to 43%.
However, Earl Sears and the Republican party are attempting to associate Spanberger with a scandal involving the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, Jason Miyares (R). Jay Jones, Miyares’ opponent, has faced backlash due to resurfaced texts regarding the shooting of former House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R), which included controversial statements. Despite an apology, Jones is looking to nationalize the campaign by linking Miyares to Trump, with recent polls showing Miyares narrowly leading Jones at 47% to 45%.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, controversy surrounds Republican John Reed, who has resisted calls to step down after it was reported that his social media accounts shared explicit content. He claims the posts were not his own and that he faces discrimination due to his sexual orientation. Reed is running against Democrat Ghazala Hashmi, with polls suggesting a closely contested race.
Republicans aim to regain control of the House by overturning the Democrats’ 51-48 majority.
New Jersey
Republican Jack Ciattarelli is vying to improve the party’s standing in New Jersey by defeating Democrat Mikie Sherrill and succeeding the term-limited Governor Phil Murphy (D). Recent elections have indicated that Democrats can’t take this state for granted; Murphy won by a slim margin in 2021, and former Vice President Harris had a narrow win as well.
The GOP wants the gubernatorial race to represent a referendum against Democratic governance amid concerns about rising utility costs and overall affordability. Democrats, in turn, are attempting to nationalize the campaign, linking Ciattarelli to Trump and criticizing the prior administration’s funding freeze on infrastructure projects.
Sherrill’s campaign is facing worries regarding turnout among Black and Latino/Hispanic voters, but there remains a cautious optimism among Democrats ahead of the election, with polling showing Sherrill at 50% against Ciattarelli’s nearly 46%.
New York City
As the New York City mayoral race nears its conclusion, independents, moderate Democrats, and Republicans are competing to swing support towards Cuomo over Mamdani. Since Mamdani’s primary win against Cuomo, he has gained steadily in the polls, and a victory could mark him as the city’s first millennial and Muslim mayor.
His support has increased due to a resonant affordability message, contrasting with much of his party’s stance largely focused on opposition to Trump. Additionally, various endorsements for Cuomo from prominent figures like Mayor Adams and even Trump may not be sufficient to overshadow Mamdani’s momentum, with polls showing him leading Cuomo by a substantial margin.
Another important contest in the city is for Manhattan District Attorney, where incumbent Alvin Bragg faces Republican Maude Moran, bringing added attention to the upcoming election.
California
In California, voters will evaluate a significant voting bill that could provide Democrats another advantage in the 2026 midterms as both parties race to redraw congressional maps. Proposition 50 allows the state to bypass its independent redistricting commission temporarily, enabling a new Democratic-leaning congressional map to be adopted before 2026.
This initiative stems from broader national redistricting challenges, particularly following Republican pushes in other states. What initially appeared risky for Governor Newsom is now anticipated to pass comfortably, especially in the absence of significant opposition.
A victory would positively impact Newsom, who is regarded as a potential candidate for the 2028 presidential race.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania voters will focus on the Supreme Court retention races, where Democratic Justices David Wecht, Christine Donahue, and Kevin Dougherty are campaigning for ten-year terms. With the court currently holding a 5-2 Democratic majority, the outcome is crucial, though it’s typically challenging to unseat incumbents.
Since the onset of retention elections in 1968, only one sitting Democratic appellate judge has been ousted. These state courts are gaining importance regarding election disputes, redistricting, and access to abortion services.
Texas
Several candidates are competing for the late Representative Sylvester Turner’s (D) seat in Texas’ 18th Congressional District, including former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards (D) and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D).
A candidate needs over half the votes to avoid a runoff. If it goes to a runoff, the top two candidates will face off, with Democrats expected to secure the seat, making it crucial to maintain party loyalty during the special election.
Mississippi
The redistricting situation in Mississippi offers Democrats a chance to chip away at the Republican supermajority in the state Senate, especially after a court ruling mandated new maps due to previous violations of voting rights. While limited opportunities exist, the Republican-dominant legislature remains firm.
In a related case, the U.S. Supreme Court recently revisited the extent to which race is considered in legislative mapping, which could influence Mississippi’s redistricting as well as other states grappling with similar challenges.
