Recent opinion polls are shedding light on what might unfold as voters prepare for Election Day.
Critical elections in places like Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, and California could significantly influence the upcoming midterm elections.
Here’s a rundown of the latest polling data for these pivotal races.
Virginia
In the Virginia gubernatorial race, former Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) appears to have a strong lead over Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears (R-Va.). The latest poll from Emerson College and The Hill shows Spanberger at 55%, compared to Earl Sears at 44%. Spanberger has gained three points since the last poll, while Sears has seen a two-point increase.
The Decision Desk headquarters’ average suggests Spanberger is leading by nearly 10 points.
That being said, the attorney general race in Virginia is where all eyes are. This race was expected to be tight due to incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares’ backing and fundraising capability. Despite that, Democratic candidate Jay Jones still holds a slim lead.
However, things changed in early October when texts from 2022 surfaced in which Jones discussed violent acts against Republican Todd Gilbert. Although Jones has expressed regret for those messages, polls indicate the scandal might be diminishing Democratic hopes of replacing Miyares.
In the same Emerson poll, Jones is at 49%, with Miyares closely behind at 47%. Given the margin of error is 3.2 points, this race remains very competitive. In contrast, a Roanoke College poll last week showed Miyares up by eight points.
New Jersey
In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) is ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli, but it’s close enough to make some Democrats nervous.
The DDHQ poll average shows Sherrill at 50.1% and Ciattarelli at 45.5%. Last week’s Suffolk University poll indicated she had a four-point advantage, while an Atlas Intel poll showed her leading by just one point.
This election occurs a year after significant gains for President Trump in typically blue areas. Trump lost New Jersey by less than six points to Kamala Harris, a notable shift from his nearly 16-point loss to Biden in 2020.
Ciattarelli also performed surprisingly well in 2021, losing to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy by only 3 points.
New York City
Democratic mayoral candidate Zoran Mamdani seems poised to take the mayor’s office, according to recent polls. Though he entered the race as an underdog, he gained traction after winning the Democratic primary unexpectedly.
Efforts to curb Mamdani’s rise have been apparent, particularly after incumbent Mayor Eric Adams chose not to run again and instead backed Andrew Cuomo. Meanwhile, Republican Curtis Sliwa has faced pressure to leave the race, as critics argue his candidacy could siphon votes from Cuomo, aiding Mamdani.
Despite Cuomo’s prominent background and concerns about Mamdani’s progressive platform, support for Mamdani continues to strengthen in Democratic areas. The DDHQ poll average has him leading with 44.6%, followed by Cuomo at 31.6% and Sliwa at 18.6%.
Yet, an Atlas Intel poll from the weekend offered some hope for Cuomo’s supporters, showing him narrowing the gap with Mamdani, now trailing 40.6% to 34% as Election Day approaches.
California
Proposition 50, a ballot initiative pushed by California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), aims to create new House district maps that would temporarily supercede the state’s independent redistricting commission. This measure could allow Newsom and the Democrats to advance redistricting strategies ahead of next year’s midterms, particularly to counter actions taken by Republicans in Texas.
Even though the proposition has faced criticism from figures like former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, it seems to enjoy widespread support among voters. An Emerson College poll reveals that 57% back the measure, while 37% oppose it. Another CBS News/YouGov poll indicates an even greater margin, with 62% in favor and 38% against.
Feeling optimistic, Newsom urged supporters to halt their contributions to the campaign last week.
