Bitcoin Price Forecast by JPMorgan
According to an analyst from JPMorgan, Bitcoin is projected to rise to around $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. This expectation is based on the belief that the ongoing deleveraging of perpetual futures will conclude soon, alongside improvements in the crypto-to-gold volatility ratio.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $101,000, reflecting a 1.6% decrease over the past 24 hours.
The JPMorgan strategists, under the leadership of Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in a Wednesday report that the cryptocurrency market has seen a correction of nearly 20% from its recent highs. They pointed out the unprecedented settlement records in perpetual futures on October 10 and a smaller liquidation of $128 million on November 3.
Despite the downturn, analysts from the bank believe that the deleveraging phase for perpetual futures is nearing its end.
Interestingly, a similar trend is observed in the Ethereum market, where perpetual futures relative to market capitalization have returned to historically normal ranges over a few weeks, though this was less noticeable compared to Bitcoin.
The analyst remarked, “Overall, we believe perpetual futures are the most important instrument to watch right now. The recent stabilization suggests that we are likely past the deleveraging phase in perpetual futures.”
While exchange-traded funds have faced modest outflows, those amounts are minor compared to the inflows recorded in the weeks ending October 3 and October 10.
Additionally, analysts have noted that liquidations in CME futures have been greater for Ethereum than for Bitcoin.
The analysis emphasizes that perpetual futures are more indicative of current market conditions than traditional futures or ETF flows.
JPMorgan suggests that heightened gold volatility is making Bitcoin increasingly attractive to investors when assessed on a risk-adjusted basis.
The Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dipped below 2.0, indicating that Bitcoin currently requires around 1.8 times the risk capital compared to gold.
From this perspective, it’s estimated that Bitcoin’s current market cap of roughly $2.1 trillion would need to increase by about 67%. This projection points towards an approximate price of $170,000, aligning with an estimated $6.2 trillion in total private sector investment in gold.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading about $68,000 below what JPMorgan considers its volatility-adjusted fair value relative to gold.
The analyst concluded, “Hence, this mechanical move suggests a significant rally for Bitcoin over the next 6-12 months.”
Further Predictions and Observations
This forecast marks another in a series of optimistic predictions from JPMorgan, which had earlier year-end estimates reaching up to $126,000. In August, they projected a potential increase to $165,000, with Bitcoin surpassing its previous all-time high of over $126,200 on October 6.
In related news, Charles Schwab’s CEO recently announced that the company plans to begin offering Bitcoin transactions by the first half of 2026. He mentioned that clients have shown significant interest, with many coming to their survey site more frequently than before.
Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Global Advisors, shared his view that the recent downturn was more tied to liquidity issues rather than fundamental weaknesses, emphasizing the need for rebuilding confidence.
On a different note, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has revised its most bullish Bitcoin forecast down from $1.5 million to $1.2 million by 2030, citing faster-than-expected advancements in stablecoin technology. However, Wood remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Additionally, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas believes that Bitcoin could see an eightfold increase, surpassing $1 million soon, and he views it as the new global reserve asset, destined to outshine gold.
