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Trump and Xi tread carefully to prevent conflict over Taiwan — who will break first?

Trump and Xi tread carefully to prevent conflict over Taiwan — who will break first?

Recently, Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping might as well have been dubbed a “walkback summit.”

Both leaders announced a temporary truce in a trade war that has felt increasingly tense. They agreed to take a more measured approach, rolling back some of Trump’s tariffs while China softens its reactions. However, Trump’s “America First” agenda, as he often claims, stems from a long history of unfair trade practices that previous U.S. administrations have overlooked.

As part of this trade truce, Trump and Xi intentionally avoided touching on two notoriously sensitive subjects: Taiwan and human rights.

Since the groundbreaking Nixon-Kissinger meetings with Mao Zedong and Chou Enlai in 1972, the Taiwan issue has often been exploited by China. During those talks, the U.S. conceded many strategic points by tacitly accepting China’s claims over Taiwan. Recent reports suggested that Xi would push Trump to not only remain neutral on Taiwanese independence but actively oppose it.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassured Taiwan and its international supporters that the Trump administration was “not thinking” about abandoning Taiwan for a trade deal with China. So far, he seems to have been right. Trump made no new concessions during this recent meeting, and Xi didn’t appear to make any further demands either.

It seems Xi might be satisfied with the current trade arrangements and chose not to provoke Trump on Taiwan. Trump sees Xi’s current approach not as a favor but as a strategic avoidance of a potential U.S. backlash. Last week, Trump described Xi’s perspective during an interview, suggesting that Xi believes “we’re not going to do anything while President Trump is president,” presumably understanding the implications of any aggressive moves.

Trump’s response mirrored his earlier, assertive stance toward such questions: “China knows what I’m going to do.” I suppose you could categorize that as a kind of deterrence by bravado.

Regarding Congress, the American public, and the nation’s allies, Trump has yet to clarify his intentions about this crucial matter. There’s little expectation he will outline the strategies or military support that would be offered to defend Taiwan. A straightforward message to China and the world would suffice, confirming that the U.S. stands by Taiwan’s existence as a democratic and largely independent entity. When questioned about a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, Trump defaulted to a famous line from former President George W. Bush: “No matter what happens.”

As for the human rights situation in China, another delicate topic not addressed during Trump’s meeting with Xi, it seems to hold little interest for him. Historically, the U.S. has raised this subject in bilateral talks, seeing it as a crucial element in the broader struggle against authoritarian regimes. But Trump seems to have lost sight of the significant role human rights played in his prior “maximum pressure” campaign against North Korea.

In the first half-year of his previous term, Trump made multiple speeches condemning North Korea’s human rights violations, even implying that Kim Jong Un wasn’t fit to lead. The message was received; Kim agreed to meet with Trump to discuss denuclearization. However, Beijing intervened, advising Kim to toughen his stance in talks with Trump. Xi likely recognized the risks of a closer U.S.-North Korea relationship. After two meetings, Trump grew frustrated with Kim’s demands, leading negotiations to fall apart.

This episode, however, showcased that oppressed peoples can have allies in the realm of human rights, which can serve as a valuable tool for Western powers. Some advocates suggest that President Ronald Reagan’s connection with the citizens living under Soviet rule played a part in their eventual liberation. Yet, Trump hasn’t seemed to engage with such possibilities. Critical resources like the Voice of America and Radio Free Asia could help push back against today’s authoritarian leaders.

It would be wise for Trump to reassess his narrow focus on transactional dealings and explore avenues for peaceful transitions, at least with one member of the so-called Axis of Evil. Perhaps that could set off a chain reaction.

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