Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy Faces Major Challenge
Michael Saylor’s strategy is encountering significant challenges, particularly with the possibility of its stock being excluded from key benchmarks. These benchmarks have played a crucial role in integrating Bitcoin investments into mainstream portfolios.
This week, Bloomberg reported insights from JPMorgan analysts who indicated that the strategy could be removed from both the MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. They warned that such a move by MSCI alone might lead to an outflow of up to $2.8 billion, with potentially more losses if other index providers follow this trend.
Currently, passive funds linked to the company hold nearly $9 billion in market exposure, and a decision is anticipated by January 15.
For firms that have built their reputations around Bitcoin exposure in their stock tickers, losing index status could have wider implications beyond just trading activity. It could undermine the credibility of a business that previously positioned itself as a leading avenue for fund managers seeking regulated access to major cryptocurrencies.
The strategy’s growth pattern has been relatively straightforward. The company issued shares, acquired Bitcoin, and capitalized on the cryptocurrency’s appreciation to support further issuances and acquisitions. At its height, its market value significantly surpassed that of its Bitcoin holdings.
However, that premium is nearly gone, and the company’s market valuation now closely aligns with its crypto reserves, suggesting a dip in investor confidence.
“While active managers aren’t required to adhere to index shifts, their exclusion from major indices will likely be perceived negatively by market participants,” stated JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlighting potential risks regarding liquidity, funding costs, and overall investor appeal.
There have also been changes to indexing rules. In an update on October 10, MSCI noted that some market players regard digital asset treasury companies more like investment funds, which are not accounted for in the index.
MSCI plans to exclude firms whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of their total assets from the Global Investable Market Index. An MSCI representative mentioned they do not “speculate on future index modifications.”
This pressure follows a significant decline in both Bitcoin and the company’s stock prices.
Since reaching a peak last November, the stock price has dropped over 60%, wiping out the premium that had attracted traders and crypto enthusiasts alike.
Despite this downturn, the stock has risen more than 1,300% since Saylor first revealed his Bitcoin acquisitions in August 2020, still outperforming all major stock indices during that time frame.
Bitcoin has also seen a decrease of over 30% from its October highs, with the entire cryptocurrency market losing more than $1 trillion in value. The strategy’s mNAV—measuring the connection between the company’s value and its Bitcoin holdings—is just above 1.1, showing that trading now only slightly exceeds the value of the underlying asset.
The feedback loop that once seemed to correlate stock price increases directly with Bitcoin purchases appears to have lost its effectiveness.
Yet, Saylor isn’t slowing down. Earlier this week, his strategy added 8,178 Bitcoins for $835.6 million, after expenses, at an average cost of $102,171 per coin.
As of November 16, 2025, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings have grown to 649,870, totaling around $48.37 billion at an average price of $74,433.
Investors are now left wondering if index providers and capital markets will continue to back the strategy as the crypto landscape evolves.
