Jamaica Faces Economic Contraction Amid Hurricane Melissa Impact

Jamaica is experiencing a significant economic downturn as Hurricane Melissa disrupts key industries, with predictions of a rebound in late 2026.

According to the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), announced on Tuesday, the economy could contract by 11-13% in the final quarter of 2025, while the overall fiscal year 2025/2026 is expected to see a contraction of 3-6%.

During a quarterly press conference, Executive Director Wayne Henry noted that prior to the hurricane’s impact, the Jamaican economy was on a path of solid growth, with an estimated growth rate of 3.1% for the first half of the financial year. This growth was anticipated to carry through into the latter half.

“Growth was looking promising,” Henry mentioned, referencing expectations for continued performance. However, Hurricane Melissa, classified as a Category 5 storm, severely disrupted this trajectory, affecting nearly every sector of the economy and causing extensive damage to infrastructure and productive capabilities.

Agriculture bore the brunt of the storm’s impact, with some of the worst-hit parishes representing 74% of Jamaica’s agricultural land. This region also plays a crucial role in livestock and export crop production. The damages include compromised access to roads, loss of farmland, livestock, and necessary fishing equipment.

Dr. Henry mentioned that the upcoming October-December quarter of 2025 might be the worst performance on record since the economic setback experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Despite this, he expressed cautious optimism regarding a return to growth, projecting that recovery efforts would take hold by the end of 2026.