The most recent polls indicate that the race for Tennessee’s Republican-held House seats is intensifying, especially with Election Day just around the corner.
According to an Emerson College Poll/The Hill Poll made public recently, Republican candidate Matt Van Epps is currently two points ahead of Democratic Representative Aftin Behn, with 48% to 46%. Notably, 5% of voters remain undecided. This slight lead, which falls within the poll’s margin of error of 3.9 points, could create some anxiety among Republicans ahead of the Dec. 2 special election, where low turnout could lead to unexpected outcomes.
In a survey about supporting undecided candidates, Van Epps garnered 49%, while Behn received 47%.
Interestingly, President Donald Trump notably won the Middle Tennessee region, which spans from Kentucky to Alabama and includes part of downtown Nashville, by a margin of 22 points in 2024.
While Van Epps is favored in the traditionally Republican district, the timing of the special election falling right after Thanksgiving may influence turnout, presenting a chance for Behn.
“The outcome in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District hinges on who shows up to vote and who opts to stay home,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Voting Office. “Voters intending to cast early ballots leaned toward Behn at 56% compared to 42% for Van Epps, whereas those planning to vote on Election Day favored Van Epps, 51% to 39%.”
Young voters, particularly those under 40, are notably backing Van Epps, with 64% supporting him, but his appeal seems to grow with age, reaching 61% among voters aged 70 and older, as Kimball noted.
This special election was called following the unexpected resignation of former Congressman Mark Greene, a Republican, after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed in July. Greene, who previously chaired the influential Homeland Security Committee, stepped down for an undisclosed opportunity in the private sector.
The upcoming election on Dec. 2 carries significant weight for the narrow Republican majority; an upset victory for Behn could potentially reduce their lead by one seat.
Republicans are also looking to stem the recent electoral momentum that Democrats gained in the Nov. 4 elections. Democratic candidates have framed their successes as a response to voter dissatisfaction with rising living costs, and Behn seems to be leveraging a similar narrative.
“Are you feeling frustrated about skyrocketing food prices? Are healthcare costs weighing on your mind? Are tariffs starting to sting? Then December 2nd is your chance to shake things up in Washington,” Behn stated in a recent campaign ad.
Voter concerns, it appears, are primarily centered on the cost of living, while Republicans are emphasizing questionable past comments and footage depicting Behn’s erratic behavior and far-left views.
Behn has faced scrutiny for his past remarks about defunding the police and advocating for prison abolition, along with a controversial understanding of racial issues during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests.
Just under 40% of survey respondents identified the economy as their top concern, with other issues like affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), and threats to democracy (13%) trailing behind.
If Van Epps’ campaign doesn’t enhance its vote share in solidly red areas, Democrats could ride this momentum into next year’s midterm elections.
On Tuesday, President Trump called on his supporters in the 7th Congressional District to vote early for Van Epps. MAGA, an external super PAC linked to Trump, has also invested in supporting Van Epps, marking their first contribution for the 2026 cycle.
President Trump said, “To all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District who haven’t voted yet, tomorrow, November 26th, is the last day for in-person early voting, so I urge you to support MAGA warrior Matt Van Epps.” He added.
Additionally, the conservative Club for Growth has also redirected resources to races in an effort to avoid Democratic upsets.
Van Epps, who was handpicked by Greene, comes with strong backing from President Trump and is a combat veteran.
This survey was conducted between November 22 and November 24 among 600 potential voters.
